“Vaccine manufacturers have substantially increased their capacity to produce pandemic influenza vaccines during the past two years…(and) while capacity is increasing, it would not be sufficient to meet the global need for emergency production of pandemic influenza vaccines at the time of a pandemic,” according to a new study by Oliver Wyman, an international strategy consulting firm.
The study was conducted in collaboration with the World Health Organization (WHO) and The International Federation of Pharmaceutical Manufacturers Associations (IFPMA) and funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
IFPMA Director General Alicia D. Greenidge said, “This study advances our understanding of the world’s ability to address pandemic influenza, and demonstrates the progress made by our member companies in developing new vaccine technologies and expanding production facilities. Our member companies are committed to working with the WHO and countries to ensure that we make the best use of the surplus capacity to prepare for a pandemic. The findings suggest that the early use of stockpiled H5N1-based vaccines, followed by pandemic vaccines as soon as these become available, offers a realistic strategy to address this significant threat.”
The study reported that:
– Pandemic influenza vaccine production capacity has increased by 300 percent over the last two years, largely driven by improvements in production yields and dosage-sparing technologies.
– With current technology, doses of vaccine tailored to the actual pandemic influenza strain will not be available until four months after identification of that strain by the WHO due to the technical lead time required to adapt the strain for vaccine production, manufacture vaccine, and distribute product.
– In the base (most likely) case, manufacturers could produce 2.5 billion doses of pandemic vaccine in the 12 months following receipt of the production strain, requiring 4 years to satisfy global demand. In the best case, 7.7 billion doses could be produced in the first 12 months, requiring 1.5 years to satisfy global demand.
– This capacity is expected to rise to 5 – 14.5 billion doses over the next five years. The resulting time to meet global demand would be reduced to between 2.5 years (in the base case) and 1 year (in the best case).
– Surplus capacity (above current seasonal influenza and stockpile demand) currently exists to produce 2.5 billion annual doses of H5N1 vaccine prior to a pandemic. This surplus capacity is expected to rise to between 2.6 and 5.4 billion doses per year over the next 5 years.
vaccines and global health :: ethics and policy 