WHO: Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 – update 84 Weekly 22 January 2010

The WHO continues to issue weekly “updates” and briefing notes on the H1N1 pandemic at: http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/en/index.html

Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 – update 84
Weekly update
22 January 2010

As of 17 January 2010, worldwide more than 209 countries and overseas territories or communities have reported laboratory confirmed cases of pandemic influenza H1N1 2009, including at least 14142 deaths.

WHO is actively monitoring the progress of the pandemic through frequent consultations with the WHO Regional Offices and member states and through monitoring of multiple sources of information.

Situation update:
The overall situation in largely unchanged since last week. The most intense transmission of pandemic influenza virus continues to occur in North Africa, South Asia, and in limited areas of Eastern Europe. Overall pandemic influenza activity in the temperate northern hemisphere peaked between late October and late November 2009 and has continued to decline since…

More at: http://www.who.int/csr/don/2010_01_22/en/index.html

WHO Director-General Report: Progress in public health during the previous decade, major challenges ahead

WHO published the report by the Director-General to the Executive Board at its 126th session in Geneva, Switzerland on 18 January 2010. We excerpt a portion of the speech which addresses immunization issues and the H1Ni pandemic below. Dr. Chan’s full speech text is available at the link below and is titled:

Progress in public health during the previous decade and major challenges ahead

“…We are at the start of the second decade of the 21st century. And we are just five years away from 2015. A report on progress towards the health-related Millennium Development Goals is on your agenda.

Several other reports describe activities that are contributing to achievement of the Goals or point to specific challenges that need to be addressed. As these reports show, progress in individual countries tends to be greatest in the better-off populations. We are still not doing enough to improve life for the most vulnerable and the poorest of the poor.

At the international level, the picture is mixed, and the African region must continue to be a focus of particular concern. But there are many bright and motivating examples of success everywhere.

Some of these examples come from big-picture trends. Towards the end of last year, WHO and other agencies issued substantial reports on trends for HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, vaccines and immunization, and the health of children.

You will be familiar with the positive trends in all these areas. The progress is sometimes fragile, threatened by factors ranging from drug resistance to uncertain funding for the future. But the trends are definitely positive. While optimism about the malaria situation must be cautious, this is the first time, in decades, that we are getting some good news. This, too, is progress.

We can all be proud that the drive to reach international health commitments has never faltered, even at a time of multiple global crises on multiple fronts.

Apart from these big-picture trends, reports prepared for this session cover many specific indicators of progress. Vitamin A supplementation has been implemented as a life-saving measure in 66 of 68 countries with a high burden of child deaths. Since 2000, measles deaths have dropped by 78%. As the report on this item concludes, measles eradication is achievable. If we want to do this, we can.

By 2007, 98% of reported tuberculosis cases were being diagnosed and treated in DOTS programmes. WHO Child Growth Standards have been adopted by more than 100 countries. This, in turn, has led to increased investment in programmes to reduce undernutrition, but also to tackle the growing problem of childhood obesity. As I have said on many occasions, what gets measured gets done.

Ten years into this new century, we are seeing signs that aid for health development can bring solid results. Equally important, in the drive to reach a limited number of time-bound health goals, fundamental problems are being uncovered, and solutions are being found that benefit public health across the board.

We are making progress, as the reports before you show. We need to keep on setting our sights higher, aiming to do more, for more and more people.

Ladies and gentlemen,

For me, the best health news of the previous decade is the fact that the long overdue influenza pandemic has been so moderate in its impact. Had the pandemic taken another course, the agenda for this session would have looked very different. Had the virus mutated to a more virulent form, we would not be talking about forging ahead. We would be standing still or dealing with serious setbacks.

We have been fortunate since the very emergence of the new H1N1 virus, and have remained fortunate up to now. The virus initially spread in countries with good surveillance systems. The honesty and speed of early reporting set the standard for the international response.

The virus did not mutate to a more virulent form. Resistance to oseltamivir did not become widespread. The vaccine proved safe and a close match with circulating virus. Things could have gone wrong in any of these areas.

We were fortunate in other ways. This is the first pandemic to occur since the revolution in communications and information technologies. For the first time in history, the international community could watch a pandemic unfold, and chart its evolution, in real time.

The amount of data that have been collected since April of last year, and the number of research reports and studies that have been published, have been remarkable. This quick collection of information has allowed WHO to issue treatment guidelines, track the epidemiology, and keep a close watch for mutations, including those that confer resistance to antiviral drugs.

When the history of this pandemic is written, I believe that the speed of actions taken by governments to protect their populations will earn the highest marks. Though the burden on emergency rooms and intensive care units has been heavy, nearly all health systems have coped well. Let me pay tribute to all the health care workers who have worked tirelessly to care for patients.

The early standard of rapid and transparent reporting was upheld, and the sharing of information, diagnostic support, test kits, and viruses has been commendably generous. To date, well over 23,000 viruses and other specimens have been submitted to WHO network laboratories for analysis.

During any public health emergency, health officials must make urgent, often far-reaching decisions in an atmosphere of considerable scientific uncertainty. Given our duty to safeguard public health, the tendency of officials facing such a situation is nearly always to err on the side of caution. I believe we would all rather see a moderate pandemic with ample supplies of vaccine than a severe pandemic with inadequate supplies of vaccine.

In some countries in the northern hemisphere with good surveillance systems, the pandemic appears to be easing. The worst may be over. But it would be unwise for anyone to reach firm conclusions before April, when the normal influenza season usually ends. There is still quite a lot of winter left.

In addition, we cannot predict what will happen between now and later in the year, when the southern hemisphere enters its influenza season and the virus becomes more transmissible.

Data for most parts of Africa are sparse. We are concerned that some countries in the western part of the continent remain susceptible to intense waves of transmission. We do not know for sure, but we are keeping a careful watch.

Population susceptibility to infection by a new virus drives the dynamics of an influenza pandemic. This is the critical question. Are there enough susceptible people left to sustain further waves of community-wide transmission? At present, we simply do not have enough data to answer this question with certainty. Studies are, however, under way.

We can estimate how much immunity has been conferred through vaccination. But knowing how much natural immunity has been acquired through infection is more difficult, especially given the very mild nature of illness in the vast majority of patients. Some infections produced no symptoms, and quick surveys of influenza-like illness will not capture these infections.

In short: I believe that what most countries are doing, that is, urging their populations to get vaccinated, is the prudent public health approach. Each country has to assess its own epidemiological situation and the needs and concerns of its citizens. For developing countries concerned about their lack of access to pandemic vaccines, WHO is ramping up its donation programme.

This pandemic has also been the first major test of the revised International Health Regulations. They have given the world an orderly, rules-based way to respond, and this has been an asset. With few exceptions, social and economic disruptions have been far less significant than feared. Another strength of the International Health Regulations is its system of checks and balances. They ensure that no one, myself included, has unfettered power.

Although the virus has not yet delivered any devastating surprises, we have seen some surprises on other fronts. We anticipated problems in producing enough vaccine fast enough, and this did indeed happen. But we did not anticipate that people would decide not to be vaccinated.

I mentioned the revolution in communications and information technologies. In today’s world, people can draw on a vast range of information sources. People make their own decisions about what information to trust, and base their actions on those decisions.

The days when health officials could issue advice, based on the very best medical and scientific data, and expect populations to comply, may be fading. It may no longer be sufficient to say that a vaccine is safe, or testing complied with all regulatory standards, or a risk is real.

In my view, this is a new communications challenge that we may need to address. As the items on your agenda show, persuading people to adopt healthy behaviours is one of the biggest challenges in public health.

In terms of managing public perceptions, part of the problem arises from the big difference between what was expected, after watching the highly lethal H5N1 virus for so long, and what fortunately happened. An event similar to the 1918 pandemic was feared, when what actually happened is probably closer to the 1957 or 1968 pandemics.

Let me introduce a word of caution. Reliable estimates of the number of deaths and the mortality rate during the current pandemic will not be possible until one to two years after the pandemic has ended.

Let me reassure you on a final point. This has been the most closely watched and carefully scrutinized pandemic in history. We will have a wealth of new knowledge as a result. It is natural that every decision or action that shaped the response will likewise be closely and carefully scrutinized.

WHO can withstand this scrutiny…”

http://www.who.int/dg/speeches/2010/executive_board_126_20100118/en/index.html

PATH welcomes GSK announcements on RTS,S malaria vaccine candidate

PATH said it welcomed announcements made by GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) CEO Andrew Witty concerning sustainable pricing and vaccine donations for RTS,S malaria vaccine candidate, currently in a large, late-stage clinical trial that is supported by the PATH Malaria Vaccine Initiative (MVI). Christian Loucq, director of MVI, said, “The announcements…are positive steps in the long pathway from discovery to delivery of RTS,S. These commitments help to illustrate the potential of product development partnerships—like the one between MVI and GSK Biologicals—for meeting the health needs of people in developing countries.”

In a speech at the Council on Foreign Relations, Mr. Witty “committed to setting a price for RTS,S that would cover GSK’s costs and generate a small return that would be re-invested in research and development for next-generation malaria vaccines and vaccines against other neglected diseases. GSK also committed to donating at least 12.5 million doses of RTS,S (if approved for use) to PATH.”

PATH said that GSK Biologicals, the vaccine division of GSK, and PATH signed a collaboration agreement in 2001 to pursue the pediatric clinical development of RTS,S in Africa. To advance the development program, African research centers in five countries, and collaborating institutions, joined the partnership. Centers in two additional African countries have joined for the Phase 3 trial. Together, these partners comprise the Clinical Trials Partnership Committee and lead the clinical development of RTS,S, PATH said.

Christopher J. Elias, president and CEO of PATH, commented, “Like other PATH programs, MVI’s mission goes beyond development of a health intervention to ensuring that it is available at the lowest price possible and readily accessible to all who need it. In light of the commitments made today and as we get closer to the day that the RTS,S vaccine candidate—if all goes well—could be available for use, we look forward to working with GSK, as well as other global partners, to ensure that malaria vaccines are available to the children that need them most.”

20 January 2010. http://www.path.org/news/an100120-MVI.php

IVI announces the licensure of oral cholera vaccine

IVI announced the licensure of Shanchol, an oral cholera vaccine, in India in 2009, noting that “efforts to accelerate the global use of new generation cholera vaccines gained significant momentum with the licensure. IVI said its scientists developed this vaccine, with funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, “by significantly modifying a vaccine used and produced only in Vietnam so that it meets international Good Manufacturing Practice (GMP) standards and WHO production guidelines.”

http://www.ivi.org/popup/files/ocv_article.pdf

Weekly Epidemiological Record (WER) for 22 January 2009

The Weekly Epidemiological Record (WER) for 22 January 2009, vol. 85, 4 (pp 21–28) includes: Preliminary review of D222G amino acid substitution in the haemagglutinin of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 viruses; African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control – report of the sixth meeting of national task forces, October 2009

http://www.who.int/wer/2010/wer8504.pdf

MMWR Weekly for January 22, 2010

The MMWR Weekly for January 22, 2010 / Vol. 59 / No. 2 includes:

Prevalence of Abnormal Lipid Levels Among Youths — United States, 1999–2006

Transfusion-Related Transmission of Yellow Fever Vaccine Virus — California, 2009

Update: Influenza Activity — United States, August 30, 2009–January 9, 2010

Interim Results: Influenza A (H1N1) 2009 Monovalent Vaccination Coverage — United States, October–December 2009

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_wk.html