Vaccine
Volume 27, Issue 34, Pages 4551-4738 (23 July 2009)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/0264410X

Regular Papers
Transmission-dynamic model to capture the indirect effects of infant vaccination with Prevnar (7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7)) in older populations

Pages 4694-4703
Sonya J. Snedecor, David R. Strutton, Vincent Ciuryla, Elissa J. Schwartz, Marc F. Botteman

Abstract
We developed an age-structured, transmission-dynamic, mathematical model to quantify the direct and indirect benefits of infant PCV7 vaccination. The model simulates the acquisition of asymptomatic carriage of Streptococcus pneumoniae and the development of fatal and non-fatal invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) among vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals aged <2, 2–4, 5–17, 18–49, 50–64, and ≥65 years old. The model was parameterized using published US surveillance data, supplemented with data from published literature. The model predicts the observed incidence of IPD with good agreement and may be used to predict the impact of various vaccination strategies in the US or other populations yet to introduce PCV7.