The Lancet Infectious Disease
Feb 2010  Volume 10  Number 2  Pages 67 – 138
http://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/issue/current

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Adherence to cervical screening in the era of human papillomavirus vaccination: how low is too low?
Chris T Bauch, Meng Li, Gretchen Chapman, Alison P Galvani

Human papillomavirus vaccine prevents infection by two major oncogenic types of the virus. Continued screening is needed in vaccinated women to prevent cancers caused by high-risk types not included in the vaccine. An exaggerated sense of protection from the vaccine could lead to a decline in the rate of screening among vaccinated women, which in principle could lead to an increase in the incidence of cervical cancer. We present a simple mathematical model of vaccination, screening, and disease incidence, including an analysis of the effect of data uncertainties.