Nature
Volume 465 Number 7296 pp267-390  20 May 2010
http://www.nature.com/nature/current_issue.html

Letter
Climate change and the global malaria recession
Peter W. Gething, David L. Smith, Anand P. Patil, Andrew J. Tatem, Robert W. Snow & Simon I. Hay

Rising global temperatures resulting from climate change have been predicted to increase the future incidence of infectious diseases, including malaria. However, it is known that the range of malaria has contracted through a century of economic development and disease control. This contraction has now been quantified, and compared with the predicted effects of climate on malaria incidence. It is suggested that the impact of rising temperature is likely to be minor.