2009 H1N1 Influenza Pandemic: Modelling Public Health Challenges

PLoS Medicine
(Accessed 7 June 2010)
http://medicine.plosjournals.org/perlserv/?request=browse&issn=1549-1676&method=pubdate&search_fulltext=1&order=online_date&row_start=1&limit=10&document_count=1533&ct=1&SESSID=aac96924d41874935d8e1c2a2501181c#results

Studies Needed to Address Public Health Challenges of the 2009 H1N1 Influenza Pandemic: Insights from Modeling
Maria D. Van Kerkhove, Tommi Asikainen, Niels G. Becker, Steven Bjorge, Jean-Claude Desenclos, Thais dos Santos, Christophe Fraser, Gabriel M. Leung, Marc Lipsitch, Ira M. Longini Jr, Emma S. McBryde, Cathy E. Roth, David K. Shay, Derek J. Smith, Jacco Wallinga, Peter J. White, Neil M. Ferguson, Steven Riley Policy Forum, published 01 Jun 2010

Summary Points
– As the global epidemiology of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza (H1N1pdm) virus strain unfolds into 2010, substantial policy challenges will continue to present themselves for the next 12 to 18 months.

– Here, we anticipate six public health challenges and identify data that are required for public health decision making: Measuring age-specific immunity to infection; accurately quantifying severity; improving treatment outcomes for severe cases; quantifying the effectiveness of interventions; capturing the full impact of the pandemic on mortality; and rapidly identifying and responding to antigenic variants.

– Representative serological surveys stand out as a critical source of data with which to reduce uncertainty around policy choices for both pharmaceutical and nonpharmaceutical interventions after the initial wave has passed.

– Continuing to monitor the time course of incidence of severe H1N1pdm cases will give a clear picture of variability in underlying transmissibility of the virus during population-wide changes in behavior such as school vacations and other nonpharmaceutical interventions.

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