Science        
7 March 2014 vol 343, issue 6175, pages 1049-1168
http://www.sciencemag.org/current.dtl

Report
Altitudinal Changes in Malaria Incidence in Highlands of Ethiopia and Colombia
A. S. Siraj1, M. Santos-Vega2, M. J. Bouma3, D. Yadeta4, D. Ruiz Carrascal5,6, M. Pascual2,7,†
Author Affiliations
1Department of Geography and the Environment, University of Denver, 235 Boettcher West, 2050 East Iliff Avenue Denver, CO 80208-0710, USA.
2Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, 2019 Kraus Natural Sciences Building, 830 North University, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1048, USA.
3London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, University of London, London WC1 E7HT, UK.
4Oromia Regional Health Bureau, Post Office Box 24341, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
5International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University in the City of New York, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Post Office Box 1000, 61 Route 9W, Monell Building, Palisades, NY 10964-1000, USA.
6Escuela de Ingenieria de Antioquia, km 02+200 Vía al Aeropuerto José María Córdova, Envigado, Antioquia, Colombia.
7Howard Hughes Medical Institute, Chevy Chase, MD 20815-6789, USA.
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/343/6175/1154.abstract

Abstract
Editor’s Summary
The impact of global warming on insect-borne diseases and on highland malaria in particular remains controversial. Temperature is known to influence transmission intensity through its effects on the population growth of the mosquito vector and on pathogen development within the vector. Spatiotemporal data at a regional scale in highlands of Colombia and Ethiopia supplied an opportunity to examine how the spatial distribution of the disease changes with the interannual variability of temperature. We provide evidence for an increase in the altitude of malaria distribution in warmer years, which implies that climate change will, without mitigation, result in an increase of the malaria burden in the densely populated highlands of Africa and South America…