PLoS Currents: Outbreaks
http://currents.plos.org/outbreaks/
(Accessed 20 December 2014)

Ebola and Indirect Effects on Health Service Function in Sierra Leone
December 19, 2014 • Research
Background: The indirect effects of the Ebola epidemic on health service function may be significant but is not known. The aim of this study was to quantify to what extent admission rates and surgery has changed at health facilities providing such care in Sierra Leone during the time of the Ebola epidemic.
Methods: Weekly data on facility inpatient admissions and surgery from admission and surgical theatre register books were retrospectively retrieved during September and October. 21 Community Health Officers enrolled in a surgical task-shifting program personally visited the facilities. The study period was January 6 (week 2) to October 12, (week 41) 2014.
Results: Data was retrieved from 40 out of 55 facilities. A total of 62,257 admissions and 12,124 major surgeries were registered for the study period.
Total admissions in the week of the first Ebola case were 2,006, median 40 (IQR 20-76) compared to 883, median 12 (IQR 4-30) on the last week of the study. This equals a 70% drop in median number of admissions (p=0.005) between May and October. Total number of major surgeries fell from 342, median 6 (IQR 2-14) to 231, median 3 (IQR 0-6) in the same period, equal 50% reduction in median number of major surgeries (p=0.014).
Conclusions: Inpatient health services have been severely affected by the Ebola outbreak. The dramatic documented decline in facility inpatient admissions and major surgery is likely to be an underestimation. Reestablishing such care is urgent and must be a priority.

Estimation of MERS-Coronavirus Reproductive Number and Case Fatality Rate for the Spring 2014 Saudi Arabia Outbreak: Insights from Publicly Available Data
December 18, 2014 • Research
Background: The Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) was initially recognized as a source of severe respiratory illness and renal failure in 2012. Prior to 2014, MERS-CoV was mostly associated with sporadic cases of human illness, of presumed zoonotic origin, though chains of person-to-person transmission in the healthcare setting were reported. In spring 2014, large healthcare-associated outbreaks of MERS-CoV infection occurred in Jeddah and Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. To date the epidemiological information published by public health investigators in affected jurisdictions has been relatively limited. However, it is important that the global public health community have access to information on the basic epidemiological features of the outbreak to date, including the basic reproduction number (R0) and best estimates of case-fatality rates (CFR). We sought to address these gaps using a publicly available line listing of MERS-CoV cases.
Methods: R0 was estimated using the incidence decay with exponential adjustment (“IDEA”) method, while period-specific case fatality rates that incorporated non-attributed death data were estimated using Monte Carlo simulation.
Results: 707 cases were available for evaluation. 52% of cases were identified as primary, with the rest being secondary. IDEA model fits suggested a higher R0 in Jeddah (3.5-6.7) than in Riyadh (2.0-2.8); control parameters suggested more rapid reduction in transmission in the former city than the latter. The model accurately projected final size and end date of the Riyadh outbreak based on information available prior to the outbreak peak; for Jeddah, these projections were possible once the outbreak peaked. Overall case-fatality was 40%; depending on the timing of 171 deaths unlinked to case data, outbreak CFR could be higher, lower, or equivalent to pre-outbreak CFR.
Conclusions: Notwithstanding imperfect data, inferences about MERS-CoV epidemiology important for public health preparedness are possible using publicly available data sources. The R0 estimated in Riyadh appears similar to that seen for SARS-CoV, but CFR appears higher, and indirect evidence suggests control activities ended these outbreaks. These data suggest this disease should be regarded with equal or greater concern than the related SARS-CoV.