DCVMN International develops multiple initiatives to accelerate access to affordable high quality-vaccines

DCVMN International develops multiple initiatives to accelerate access to affordable high quality-vaccines
Posted 09-December-2014
October 2014 — The Developing Countries Vaccine Manufacturers Network (DCVMN) International has announced at its annual gathering in Delhi, India, its intention to support access to affordable high-quality vaccines by enabling a larger number of vaccine manufacturers to achieve a more sustainable and secure supply of priority vaccines for international procurement, particularly for GAVI-eligible countries, with the common goal of protecting people against known and emerging infectious diseases globally.

DCVMN, through its members, has been working together with global health stakeholders since early this year, in identifying needs and challenges of the vaccine industry in developing countries. Four areas of action have been agreed to strengthen and foster sustainable vaccine supply:
(1) review of manufacturing facilities design,
(2) provide adequate training on evolving GMP requirements, quality management systems, and the WHO standards and prequalification,
(3) encourage dialogue on regulatory challenges,
(4) facilitate access to independent experts able to resolve vaccine industry specific issues.

The three years’ project costs of over 3.6 million dollars will be sourced to 60 percent by international global health organizations and the remaining jointly by DCVMN members and partners. The priority vaccines to be targeted encompass Pentavalent/Hexavalent, Pneumococcal Conjugate, Rotavirus, Typhoid Conjugate, Human Papillomavirus, Measles/Rubella and Inactivated Polio vaccines.

“Two out of three children in the world receive lifesaving vaccines from emerging manufacturers, and as the world’s population is growing at the fastest rate in developing countries, it is important to ensure improved manufacturing in every facility we can reach” said Mr. Mahendra Suhardono, President of DCVMN.
All members involved in funding these initiatives share the vision of developing countries free of suffering and disabilities from major infectious diseases, and will work together to foster the development and supply of safe, effective and affordable vaccines for the future generations of world’s developing nations.

BMC Infectious Diseases (Accessed 13 December 2014)

BMC Infectious Diseases
(Accessed 13 December 2014)
http://www.biomedcentral.com/bmcinfectdis/content

Research article
Natural attack rate of influenza in unvaccinated children and adults: a meta-regression analysis
Kavisha Jayasundara1*, Charlene Soobiah2, Edward Thommes13, Andrea C Tricco24 and Ayman Chit15
Author Affiliations
BMC Infectious Diseases 2014, 14:670 doi:10.1186/s12879-014-0670-5
Published: 11 December 2014
Abstract (provisional)
Background
The natural (i.e. unvaccinated population) attack rate of an infectious disease is an important parameter required for understanding disease transmission. As such, it is an input parameter in infectious disease mathematical models. Influenza is an infectious disease that poses a major health concern worldwide and the natural attack rate of this disease is crucial in determining the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of public health interventions and informing surveillance program design. We estimated age-stratified, strain-specific natural attack rates of laboratory-confirmed influenza in unvaccinated individuals.
Methods
Utilizing an existing systematic review, we calculated the attack rates in the trial placebo arms using a random effects model and a meta-regression analysis (GSK study identifier: 117102).
Results
This post-hoc analysis included 34 RCTs (Randomized Control Trials) contributing to 47 influenza seasons from 1970 to 2009. Meta-regression analyses showed that age and type of influenza were important covariates. The attack rates (95% CI (Confidence Interval)) in adults for all influenza, type A and type B were 3.50% (2.30%, 4.60%), 2.32% (1.47%, 3.17%) and 0.59% (0.28%, 0.91%) respectively. For children, they were 15.20% (11.40%, 18.90%), 12.27% (8.56%, 15.97%) and 5.50% (3.49%, 7.51%) respectively.
Conclusions
This analysis demonstrated that unvaccinated children have considerably higher exposure risk than adults and influenza A can cause more disease than influenza B. Moreover, a higher ratio of influenza B:A in children than adults was observed. This study provides a new, stratified and up to-date natural attack rates that can be used in influenza infectious disease models and are consistent with previous published work in the field.

Study protocol
Multicenter case–control study protocol of pneumonia etiology in children: Global Approach to Biological Research, Infectious diseases and Epidemics in Low-income countries (GABRIEL network)
Valentina Sanchez Picot, Thomas Bénet, Melina Messaoudi, Jean-Noël Telles, Monidarin Chou, Tekchheng Eap, Jianwei Wang, Kunling Shen, Jean-William Pape, Vanessa Rouzier, Shally Awasthi, Nitin Pandey, Ashish Bavdekar, Sonali Sanghvi, Annick Robinson, Bénédicte Contamin, Jonathan Hoffmann, Maryam Sylla, Souleymane Diallo, Pagbajabyn Nymadawa, Budragchaagiin Dash-Yandag, Graciela Russomando, Wilma Basualdo, Marilda M Siqueira, Patricia Barreto, Florence Komurian-Pradel, Guy Vernet, Hubert Endtz, Philippe Vanhems, Gláucia Paranhos-Baccalà* and and on behalf of the pneumonia GABRIEL network
Author Affiliations
BMC Infectious Diseases 2014, 14:635 doi:10.1186/s12879-014-0635-8
Published: 10 December 2014
Abstract (provisional)
Background
Data on the etiologies of pneumonia among children are inadequate, especially in developing countries. The principal objective is to undertake a multicenter incident case-control study of <5-year-old children hospitalized with pneumonia in developing and emerging countries, aiming to identify the causative agents involved in pneumonia while assessing individual and microbial factors associated with the risk of severe pneumonia.
Methods/design
A multicenter case-control study, based on the GABRIEL network, is ongoing. Ten study sites are located in 9 countries over 3 continents: Brazil, Cambodia, China, Haiti, India, Madagascar, Mali, Mongolia, and Paraguay. At least 1,000 incident cases and 1,000 controls will be enrolled and matched for age and date. Cases are hospitalized children <5-years with radiologically confirmed pneumonia, and the controls are children without any features suggestive of pneumonia. Respiratory specimens are collected from all enrolled subjects to identify 19 viruses and 5 bacteria. Whole blood from pneumonia cases is being tested for 3 major bacteria. S. pneumoniae-positive specimens are serotyped. Urine samples from cases only are tested for detection of antimicrobial activity. The association between procalcitonin, C-reactive protein and pathogens is being evaluated. A discovery platform will enable pathogen identification in undiagnosed samples.
Discussion
This multicenter study will provide descriptive results for better understanding of pathogens responsible for pneumonia among children in developing countries. The identification of determinants related to microorganisms associated with pneumonia and its severity should facilitate treatment and prevention.

BMC Medical Ethics (Accessed 13 December 2014)

BMC Medical Ethics
(Accessed 13 December 2014)
http://www.biomedcentral.com/bmcmedethics/content

Debate
Community engagement and the human infrastructure of global health research
Katherine F King, Pamela Kolopack, Maria W Merritt and James V Lavery
BMC Medical Ethics 2014, 15:84 doi:10.1186/1472-6939-15-84
Published: 13 December 2014
Abstract (provisional)
Background
Biomedical research is increasingly globalized with ever more research conducted in low and middle-income countries. This trend raises a host of ethical concerns and critiques. While community engagement (CE) has been proposed as an ethically important practice for global biomedical research, there is no agreement about what these practices contribute to the ethics of research, or when they are needed.
Discussion
In this paper, we propose an ethical framework for CE. The framework is grounded in the insight that relationships between the researcher and the community extend beyond the normal bounds of the researcher-research participant encounter and are the foundation of meaningful engagement. These relationships create an essential “human infrastructure” – a web of relationships between researchers and the stakeholder community–i.e., the diverse stakeholders who have interests in the conduct and/or outcomes of the research. Through these relationships, researchers are able to address three core ethical responsibilities: (1) identifying and managing non-obvious risks and benefits; (2) expanding respect beyond the individual to the stakeholder community; and (3) building legitimacy for the research project.
Summary
By recognizing the social and political context of biomedical research, CE offers a promising solution to many seemingly intractable challenges in global health research; however there are increasing concerns about what makes engagement meaningful. We have responded to those concerns by presenting an ethical framework for CE. This framework reflects our belief that the value of CE is realized through relationships between researchers and stakeholders, thereby advancing three distinct ethical goals. Clarity about the aims of researcher-stakeholder relationships helps to make engagement programs more meaningful, and contributes to greater clarity about when CE should be recommended or required.

Research article
Shortcomings of protocols of drug trials in relation to sponsorship as identified by Research Ethics Committees: analysis of comments raised during ethical review
Marlies van Lent, Gerard A Rongen and Henk J Out
BMC Medical Ethics 2014, 15:83 doi:10.1186/1472-6939-15-83
Published: 10 December 2014
Abstract (provisional)
Background
Submission of study protocols to research ethics committees (RECs) constitutes one of the earliest stages at which planned trials are documented in detail. Previous studies have investigated the amendments requested from researchers by RECs, but the type of issues raised during REC review have not been compared by sponsor type. The objective of this study was to identify recurring shortcomings in protocols of drug trials based on REC comments and to assess whether these were more common among industry-sponsored or non-industry trials.
Methods
Retrospective analysis of 226 protocols of drug trials approved in 2010-2011 by three RECs affiliated to academic medical centres in The Netherlands. For each protocol, information on sponsorship, number of participating centres, participating countries, study phase, registration status of the study drug, and type and number of subjects was retrieved. REC comments were extracted from decision letters sent to investigators after review and were classified using a predefined checklist that was based on legislation and guidelines on clinical drug research and previous literature.
Results
Most protocols received comments regarding participant information and consent forms (n = 182, 80.5%), methodology and statistical analyses (n = 160, 70.8%), and supporting documentation, including trial agreements and certificates of insurance (n = 154, 68.1%). Of the submitted protocols, 122 (54.0%) were non-industry and 104 (46.0%) were industry-sponsored trials. Non-industry trials more often received comments on subject selection (n = 44, 36.1%) than industry-sponsored trials (n = 18, 17.3%; RR, 1.58; 95% CI, 1.01 to 2.47), and on methodology and statistical analyses (n = 95, 77.9% versus n = 65, 62.5%, respectively; RR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.37). Non-industry trials less often received comments on supporting documentation (n = 72, 59.0%) than industry-sponsored trials (n = 82, 78.8%; RR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.72 to 0.95).
Conclusions
RECs identified important ethical and methodological shortcomings in protocols of both industry-sponsored and non-industry drug trials. Investigators, especially of non-industry trials, should better prepare their research protocols in order to facilitate the ethical review process.

British Medical Journal – 13 December 2014

British Medical Journal
13 December 2014 (vol 349, issue 7987)
http://www.bmj.com/content/349/7987

Research
Innovative research methods for studying treatments for rare diseases: methodological review
Joshua J Gagne, assistant professor, Lauren Thompson, research assistant, Kelly O’Keefe, research manager, Aaron S Kesselheim, assistant professor
BMJ 2014; 349 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.g6802 (Published 24 November 2014) Cite this as: BMJ 2014;349:g6802
Abstract
Objective To examine methods for generating evidence on health outcomes in patients with rare diseases.
Design Methodological review of existing literature.
Setting PubMed, Embase, and Academic Search Premier searched for articles describing innovative approaches to randomized trial design and analysis methods and methods for conducting observational research in patients with rare diseases.
Main outcome measures We assessed information related to the proposed methods, the specific rare disease being studied, and outcomes from the application of the methods. We summarize methods with respect to their advantages in studying health outcomes in rare diseases and provide examples of their application.
Results We identified 46 articles that proposed or described methods for studying patient health outcomes in rare diseases. Articles covered a wide range of rare diseases and most (72%) were published in 2008 or later. We identified 16 research strategies for studying rare disease. Innovative clinical trial methods minimize sample size requirements (n=4) and maximize the proportion of patients who receive active treatment (n=2), strategies crucial to studying small populations of patients with limited treatment choices. No studies describing unique methods for conducting observational studies in patients with rare diseases were identified.
Conclusions Though numerous studies apply unique clinical trial designs and considerations to assess patient health outcomes in rare diseases, less attention has been paid to innovative methods for studying rare diseases using observational data.

Clinical Review
Ebola virus disease
BMJ 2014; 349 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.g7348 (Published 10 December 2014) Cite this as: BMJ 2014;349:g7348

Management of pregnant women infected with Ebola virus in a treatment centre in Guinea, June 2014

Eurosurveillance
Volume 19, Issue 49, 11 December 2014
http://www.eurosurveillance.org/Public/Articles/Archives.aspx?PublicationId=11678

Rapid communications
Management of pregnant women infected with Ebola virus in a treatment centre in Guinea, June 2014
by FM Baggi, A Taybi, A Kurth, M Van Herp, A Di Caro, R Wölfel, S Günther, T Decroo, H Declerck, S Jonckheere

Global Health: Science and Practice (GHSP) – December 2014

Global Health: Science and Practice (GHSP)
December 2014 | Volume 2 | Issue 4
http://www.ghspjournal.org/content/current

It’s not Ebola … it’s the systems
Victor K Barbiero
Glob Health Sci Pract 2014;2(4):374-375. First published online October 31, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.9745/GHSP-D-14-00186
The 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa demonstrates key deficiencies in investment in health systems. Despite some modest investment in health systems, our field has instead largely chosen to pursue shorter-term, vertical efforts to more rapidly address key global health issues such as smallpox, polio, malaria, and HIV/AIDS. While those efforts have yielded substantial benefits, we have paid a price for the lack of investments in general systems strengthening. The Ebola deaths we have seen represent a small portion of deaths from many other causes resulting from weak systems. Major systems strengthening including crucial nonclinical elements will not happen overnight but should proceed in a prioritized, systematic way.

COMMENTARIES
The future of routine immunization in the developing world: challenges and opportunities
Angela K Shen, Rebecca Fields, Mike McQuestion
Glob Health Sci Pract 2014;2(4):381-394. http://dx.doi.org/10.9745/GHSP-D-14-00137
Vaccine costs in the developing world have grown from < US$1/child in 2001 to about $21 for boys and $35 for girls in 2014, as more and costlier vaccines are being introduced into national immunization programs. To address these and other challenges, additional efforts are needed to strengthen 8 critical components of routine immunization: (1) policy, standards, and guidelines; (2) governance, organization, and management; (3) human resources; (4) vaccine, cold chain, and logistics management; (5) service delivery; (6) communication and community partnerships; (7) data generation and use; and (8) sustainable financing.

Strategies to reduce risks in ARV supply chains in the developing world
Chris Larson, Robert Burn, Anja Minnick-Sakal, Meaghan O’Keefe Douglas, Joel Kuritsky
Glob Health Sci Pract 2014;2(4):395-402. http://dx.doi.org/10.9745/GHSP-D-14-00105
Key strategies of the main ARV procurement program for PEPFAR to reduce supply chain risks include: (1) employing pooled procurement to reduce procurement and shipping costs and to accommodate changing country needs by making stock adjustments at the regional level, and (2) establishing regional distribution centers to facilitate faster turnaround of orders within defined catchment areas.

VIEWPOINTS
A stewardship approach to shaping the future of public health supply chain systems
Alan Bornbusch, Todd Dickens, Carolyn Hart, Chris Wright
Glob Health Sci Pract 2014;2(4):403-409. First published online October 29, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.9745/GHSP-D-14-00123
Guiding Principles: (1) Governments should see themselves as stewards of supply chains, providing vision, guidance, and oversight, not necessarily as operators of supply chains. (2) Governments should not be afraid to leverage the multiple supply chain actors and diverse options available; these can be woven into a coherent, integrated system, providing flexibility and reducing risk. (3) Governments will need new skills in leadership, regulation, market research, contract design, oversight of outsourced providers, financial analysis, and alliance-building.

The integration of water, sanitation and hygiene services into the US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief: A qualitative study

Global Public Health
Volume 10, Issue 1, 2015
http://www.tandfonline.com/toc/rgph20/10/1#.VI0Y33tW_4U

The integration of water, sanitation and hygiene services into the US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief: A qualitative study
Lyana B. Mahmoudia, Jennifer L. Plattb & Jay P. Grahamac*
DOI:10.1080/17441692.2014.966736
pages 1-14
Abstract
Water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) interventions have been associated with improving the health of people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV). WASH is increasingly integrated into the HIV sector and is now considered a key component of the transition from an emergency response to a better incorporated and coordinated AIDS response. However, limited research exists on integration efforts. This qualitative research study aims to address the limited body of research on WASH integration into HIV programmes through examining the US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR). PEPFAR is the US government’s initiative to combat AIDS in the most afflicted countries. This study analyses the perceptions of people who have worked or are working on WASH integration into PEPFAR, highlighting their views on accomplishments, challenges and areas for improvement. It concludes with recommendations for moving forward.

Globalization and Health [Accessed 13 December 2014]

Globalization and Health
[Accessed 13 December 2014]
http://www.globalizationandhealth.com/

Research
Integration of community home based care programmes within national primary health care revitalisation strategies in Ethiopia, Malawi, South-Africa and Zambia: a comparative assessment
Aantjes C, Quinlan T and Bunders J Globalization and Health 2014, 10:85 (11 December 2014)

Commentary
Non‐Communicable Diseases (NCDs) in developing countries: a symposium report
Islam SMS, Purnat TD, Phuong NTA, Mwingira U, Schacht K and Fröschl G Globalization and Health 2014, 10:81 (11 December 2014)

Health Affairs – December 2014

Health Affairs
December 2014; Volume 33, Issue 12
http://content.healthaffairs.org/content/current
Issue Theme: Children’s Health

How A New Funding Model Will Shift Allocations From The Global Fund To Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, And Malaria
Victoria Y. Fan1,*, Amanda Glassman2 and Rachel L. Silverman3
Author Affiliations
1Victoria Y. Fan (vfan@post.harvard.edu) is an assistant professor in the Department of Public Health Sciences and Epidemiology at the University of Hawaii at Manoa, in Honolulu, and a research fellow at the Center for Global Development, in Washington, D.C.
2Amanda Glassman is director of global health policy and senior fellow at the Center for Global Development.
3Rachel L. Silverman is a policy analyst at the Center for Global Development.
Corresponding author
Abstract
Policy makers deciding how to fund global health programs in low- and middle-income countries face important but difficult questions about how to allocate resources across countries. In this article we present a typology of three allocation methodologies to align allocations with priorities. We then apply our typology to the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria. We examined the Global Fund’s historical HIV allocations and its predicted allocations under a new funding model that creates an explicit allocation methodology. We found that under the new funding model, substantial shifts in the Global Fund’s portfolio are likely to result from concentrating resources in countries with more HIV cases and lower per capita incomes. For example, South Africa, which had 15.8 percent of global HIV cases in 2009, could see its Global Fund HIV funding more than triple, from historic levels that averaged 3.0 percent to 9.7 percent of total Global Fund allocations. The new funding model methodology is expected, but not guaranteed, to improve the efficiency of Global Fund allocations in comparison to historical practice. We conclude with recommendations for the Global Fund and other global health donors to further develop their allocation methodologies and processes to improve efficiency and transparency.

International Survey Of Older Adults Finds Shortcomings In Access, Coordination, And Patient-Centered Care
Robin Osborn1,*, Donald Moulds2, David Squires3, Michelle M. Doty4 and Chloe Anderson5
Author Affiliations
1Robin Osborn (ro@cmwf.org) is vice president and director of the International Health Policy and Practice Innovations program at the Commonwealth Fund, in New York City.
2Donald Moulds is executive vice president for programs at the Commonwealth Fund.
3David Squires is senior researcher to the president at the Commonwealth Fund.
4Michelle M. Doty is vice president of survey research and evaluation at the Commonwealth Fund.
5Chloe Anderson is a research associate in the International Health Policy and Practice Innovations program at the Commonwealth Fund.
Corresponding author
Abstract
Industrialized nations face the common challenge of caring for aging populations, with rising rates of chronic disease and disability. Our 2014 computer-assisted telephone survey of the health and care experiences among 15,617 adults age sixty-five or older in Australia, Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States has found that US older adults were sicker than their counterparts abroad. Out-of-pocket expenses posed greater problems in the United States than elsewhere. Accessing primary care and avoiding the emergency department tended to be more difficult in the United States, Canada, and Sweden than in other surveyed countries. One-fifth or more of older adults reported receiving uncoordinated care in all countries except France. US respondents were among the most likely to have discussed health-promoting behaviors with a clinician, to have a chronic care plan tailored to their daily life, and to have engaged in end-of-life care planning. Finally, in half of the countries, one-fifth or more of chronically ill adults were caregivers themselves.

The Lancet – Dec 13, 2014

The Lancet
Dec 13, 2014 Volume 384 Number 9960 p2083-2172 e63-e66
http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/issue/current

Editorial
Universal health coverage post-2015: putting people first
The Lancet
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(14)62355-2
Summary
Dec 12, 2014 marks the world’s first Universal Health Coverage (UHC) Day. Defined in the World Health Report 2010, UHC means that all people who need quality, essential health services (prevention, promotion, treatment, rehabilitation, and palliation) receive them without enduring financial hardship. UHC also means different things to different people. Vivian Lin, health systems director (WHO regional office for the Western Pacific), told The Lancet, “some define UHC as a journey or an aspiration but it is actually a strategy to get to equitable and sustainable outcomes”.

Comment
Meningococcal carriage: the dilemma of 4CMenB vaccine
Muhamed-Kheir Taha, Ala-Eddine Deghmane
Published Online: 18 August 2014
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60935-1
Summary
The prevalence of acute bacterial meningitis and septicaemia due to Haemophilus influenzae b (Hib), Streptococcus pneumoniae, and Neisseria meningitidis has greatly decreased in Europe and North America since the successful introduction of capsular polysaccharide conjugate vaccines targeting Hib, serogroup C (and ACWY in the USA) meningococci, and S pneumoniae. Incidence of meningitis due to N meningitidis serogroup A has also decreased in sub-Saharan Africa since the introduction of the meningococcal serogroup A conjugate vaccine (MenAfriVac).

Comment
Ebola and human rights in west Africa
Patrick M Eba
Published Online: 19 September 2014
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(14)61412-4
Summary
The fear caused by the Ebola outbreak in west Africa, which is projected to infect some 20 000 people, is understandable.1 However, the disproportionate measures recently adopted in some of the affected countries are a cause for concern. Some 25 years ago, Jonathan Mann, then Director of WHO’s Global Programme on AIDS, warned world leaders alarmed at the relentless spread of HIV.

Comment
Offline: Making it happen for women and girls
Richard Horton
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(14)62046-8
Summary
It was not a matter of forgetting. “There were forces within the UN that didn’t want to include contraception.” Dr Babatunde Osotimehin is the Executive Director of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) and doesn’t mince his words. He was speaking last week at the launch of the Guttmacher Institute’s signature report, Adding It Up. Sexual and reproductive health and rights were “deliberately” dropped by the UN back in 2000, he argued. Those forces are still active today. And they are “more nimble in pushing back”.

Articles
Effect of a quadrivalent meningococcal ACWY glycoconjugate or a serogroup B meningococcal vaccine on meningococcal carriage: an observer-blind, phase 3 randomised clinical trial
Prof Robert C Read, MD, David Baxter, PhD, David R Chadwick, PhD, Prof Saul N Faust, FRCPH, Prof Adam Finn, PhD, Prof Stephen B Gordon, MD, Prof Paul T Heath, FRCPCH, Prof David J M Lewis, MD, Prof Andrew J Pollard, PhD, David P J Turner, PhD, Rohit Bazaz, MD Amitava Ganguli, MRCP, Tom Havelock, MRCP, Prof Keith R Neal, MD, Ifeanyichukwu O Okike, MD, Begonia Morales-Aza, BSc, Kamlesh Patel, BSc, Matthew D Snape, MD, John Williams, MRCP, Stefanie Gilchrist, MSc, Steve J Gray, PhD, Prof Martin C J Maiden, PhD, Daniela Toneatto, MD, Huajun Wang, MSc, Maggie McCarthy, MPH, Peter M Dull, MD, Prof Ray Borrow, PhD
Published Online: 18 August 2014
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60842-4
Summary
Background
Meningococcal conjugate vaccines protect individuals directly, but can also confer herd protection by interrupting carriage transmission. We assessed the effects of meningococcal quadrivalent glycoconjugate (MenACWY-CRM) or serogroup B (4CMenB) vaccination on meningococcal carriage rates in 18–24-year-olds.
Methods
In this phase 3, observer-blind, randomised controlled trial, university students aged 18–24 years from ten sites in England were randomly assigned (1:1:1, block size of three) to receive two doses 1 month apart of Japanese Encephalitis vaccine (controls), 4CMenB, or one dose of MenACWY-CRM then placebo. Participants were randomised with a validated computer-generated random allocation list. Participants and outcome-assessors were masked to the treatment group. Meningococci were isolated from oropharyngeal swabs collected before vaccination and at five scheduled intervals over 1 year. Primary outcomes were cross-sectional carriage 1 month after each vaccine course. Secondary outcomes included comparisons of carriage at any timepoint after primary analysis until study termination. Reactogenicity and adverse events were monitored throughout the study. Analysis was done on the modified intention-to-treat population, which included all enrolled participants who received a study vaccination and provided at least one assessable swab after baseline. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, registration number NCT01214850.
Findings
Between Sept 21 and Dec 21, 2010, 2954 participants were randomly assigned (987 assigned to control [984 analysed], 979 assigned to 4CMenB [974 analysed], 988 assigned to MenACWY-CRM [983 analysed]); 33% of the 4CMenB group, 34% of the MenACWY-CRM group, and 31% of the control group were positive for meningococcal carriage at study entry. By 1 month, there was no significant difference in carriage between controls and 4CMenB (odds ratio 1•2, 95% CI 0•8–1•7) or MenACWY-CRM (0•9, [0•6–1•3]) groups. From 3 months after dose two, 4CMenB vaccination resulted in significantly lower carriage of any meningococcal strain (18•2% [95% CI 3•4–30•8] carriage reduction), capsular groups BCWY (26•6% [10•5–39•9] carriage reduction), capsular groups CWY (29•6% [8•1–46•0] carriage reduction), and serogroups CWY (28•5% [2•8–47•5] carriage reduction) compared with control vaccination. Significantly lower carriage rates were also noted in the MenACWY-CRM group compared with controls: 39•0% (95% CI 17•3–55•0) carriage reduction for serogroup Y and 36•2% (15•6–51•7) carriage reduction for serogroup CWY. Study vaccines were generally well tolerated, with increased rates of transient local injection pain and myalgia in the 4CMenB group. No safety concerns were identified.
Interpretation
Although we detected no significant difference between groups at 1 month after vaccine course, MenACWY-CRM and 4CMenB vaccines reduced meningococcal carriage rates during 12 months after vaccination and therefore might affect transmission when widely implemented.
Funding
Novartis Vaccines.

Ebola Vaccine — An Urgent International Priority

New England Journal of Medicine
December 11, 2014 Vol. 371 No. 24
http://www.nejm.org/toc/nejm/medical-journal

Perspective
Ebola Vaccine — An Urgent International Priority
Rupa Kanapathipillai, M.D., Ana Maria Henao Restrepo, M.D., Patricia Fast, M.D., Ph.D., David Wood, Ph.D., Christopher Dye, D.Phil., Marie-Paule Kieny, Ph.D., and Vasee Moorthy, B.M., B.Ch., Ph.D.
N Engl J Med 2014; 371:2249-2251 December 11, 2014
DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1412166
This article was published on October 7, 2014, at NEJM.org.

Assessment of the Risk of Ebola Importation to Australia

PLoS Currents: Outbreaks
http://currents.plos.org/outbreaks/
(Accessed 13 December 2014)

Assessment of the Risk of Ebola Importation to Australia
December 10, 2014 • Research
Objectives:
To assess the risk of Ebola importation to Australia during the first six months of 2015, based upon the current outbreak in West Africa.
Methodology:
We assessed the risk under two distinct scenarios: (i) assuming that significant numbers of cases of Ebola remain confined to Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, and using historic passenger arrival data into Australia; and, (ii) assuming potential secondary spread based upon international flight data. A model appropriate to each scenario is developed, and parameterised using passenger arrival card or international flight data, and World Health Organisation case data from West Africa. These models were constructed based on WHO Ebola outbreak data as at 17 October 2014 and 3 December 2014. An assessment of the risk under each scenario is reported. On 27 October 2014 the Australian Government announced a policy change, that visas from affected countries would be refused/cancelled, and the predicted effect of this policy change is reported.
Results:
The current probability of at least one case entering Australia by 1 July 2015, having travelled directly from West Africa with historic passenger arrival rates into Australia, is 0.34. Under the new Australian Government policy of restricting visas from affected countries (as of 27 October 2014), the probability of at least one case entering Australia by 1 July 2015 is reduced to 0.16. The probability of at least one case entering Australia by 1 July 2015 via an outbreak from a secondary source country is approximately 0.12.
Conclusions:
Our models suggest that if the transmission of Ebola remains unchanged, it is possible that a case will enter Australia within the first six months of 2015, either directly from West Africa (even when current visa restrictions are considered), or via secondary outbreaks elsewhere. Government and medical authorities should be prepared to respond to this eventuality. Control measures within West Africa over recent months have contributed to a reduction in projected risk of a case entering Australia. A significant further reduction of the rate at which Ebola is proliferating in West Africa, and control of the disease if and when it proliferates elsewhere, will continue to result in substantially lower risk of the disease entering Australia.

From Joint Thinking to Joint Action: A Call to Action on Improving Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene for Maternal and Newborn Health

PLoS Medicine
(Accessed 13 December 2014)
http://www.plosmedicine.org/

Open Access
Policy Forum
From Joint Thinking to Joint Action: A Call to Action on Improving Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene for Maternal and Newborn Health
Yael Velleman mail, Elizabeth Mason, Wendy Graham, Lenka Benova, Mickey Chopra, Oona M. R. Campbell, Bruce Gordon, Sanjay Wijesekera, Sennen Hounton, Joanna Esteves Mills, Val Curtis, Kaosar Afsana, Sophie Boisson, [ … ], Oliver Cumming , [ view all ]
Published: December 12, 2014
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001771
Summary Points
:: There is sufficient evidence that water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) may impact maternal and newborn health (MNH) to warrant greater attention from all stakeholders involved in improving MNH and achieving universal WASH access.
:: Enabling stronger integration between the WASH and health sectors has the potential to accelerate progress on MNH; this should be accompanied by improving monitoring of WASH in health care facilities providing MNH services as part of routine national-level monitoring, and at the global level through international instruments.
:: Global and national efforts to reduce maternal and newborn mortality and morbidity should adequately reflect WASH as a pre-requisite for ensuring the quality, effectiveness, and use of health care services.
:: The Post-2015 development framework is an opportunity for a stronger, more inter-sectoral response to the MNH challenge, and the goals and targets aimed at maximizing healthy lives and increasing access to quality health care should adequately embed WASH targets and success indicators.
:: Further implementation research is needed to identify effective interventions to improve WASH at home and in health care facilities, and to impact on MNH in different health system contexts.

Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis: The Processes Underlying Programme Success

PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
http://www.plosntds.org/
(Accessed 13 December 2014)

Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis: The Processes Underlying Programme Success
Kazuyo Ichimori, Jonathan D. King, Dirk Engels, Aya Yajima, Alexei Mikhailov, Patrick Lammie, Eric A. Ottesen
Policy Platform | published 11 Dec 2014 | PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 10.1371/journal.pntd.0003328

PLoS One [Accessed 13 December 2014]

PLoS One
[Accessed 13 December 2014]
http://www.plosone.org/

Research Article
The Link between Inequality and Population Health in Low and Middle Income Countries: Policy Myth or Social Reality?
Ioana van Deurzen mail, Wim van Oorschot, Erik van Ingen
Published: December 11, 2014
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0115109
Abstract
An influential policy idea states that reducing inequality is beneficial for improving health in the low and middle income countries (LMICs). Our study provides an empirical test of this idea: we utilized data collected by the Demographic and Health Surveys between 2000 and 2011 in as much as 52 LMICs, and we examined the relationship between household wealth inequality and two health outcomes: anemia status (of the children and their mothers) and the women’ experience of child mortality. Based on multi-level analyses, we found that higher levels of household wealth inequality related to worse health, but this effect was strongly reduced when we took into account the level of individuals’ wealth. However, even after accounting for the differences between individuals in terms of household wealth and other characteristics, in those LMICs with higher household wealth inequality more women experienced child mortality and more children were tested with anemia. This effect was partially mediated by the country’s level and coverage of the health services and infrastructure. Furthermore, we found higher inequality to be related to a larger health gap between the poor and the rich in only one of the three examined samples. We conclude that an effective way to improve the health in the LMICs is to increase the wealth among the poor, which in turn also would lead to lower overall inequality and potential investments in public health infrastructure and services.

An Outbreak of Type Π Vaccine-Derived Poliovirus in Sichuan Province, China: Emergence and Circulation in an Under-Immunized Population
Hai-Bo Wang, Gang Fang, Wen-Zhou Yu, Fei Du, Chun-Xiang Fan, Qing-Lian Liu, Li-Xin Hao, Yu Liu, Jing-Shan Zheng, Zhi-Ying Qin, Wei Xia, Shi-Yue Zhang, Zun-Dong Yin, Qiong Jing, Yan-Xia Zhang, Rong-Na Huang, Ru-Pei Yang, Wen-Bin Tong, Qi Qi, Xu-Jing Guan, Yu-Lin Jing, Qian-Li Ma, Jin Wang, Xiao-Zhen Ma, Na Chen, Hong-Ru Zheng, Yin-Qiao Li, Chao Ma, Qi-Ru Su, Kathleen H. Reilly, Hui-Ming Luo, Xian-Ping Wu, Ning Wen, Wei-Zhong Yang
Research Article | published 11 Dec 2014 | PLOS ONE 10.1371/journal.pone.0113880

The Possible Impact of Vaccination for Seasonal Influenza on Emergence of Pandemic Influenza via Reassortment
Xu-Sheng Zhang, Richard Pebody, Daniela De Angelis, Peter J. White, Andre Charlett, John W. McCauley
Research Article | published 10 Dec 2014 | PLOS ONE 10.1371/journal.pone.0114637

The Relationship between Influenza Vaccination Habits and Location of Vaccination
Lori Uscher-Pines, Andrew Mulcahy, Jurgen Maurer, Katherine Harris
Research Article | published 09 Dec 2014 | PLOS ONE 10.1371/journal.pone.0114863

School-Located Influenza Vaccination Reduces Community Risk for Influenza and Influenza-Like Illness Emergency Care Visits
Cuc H. Tran, Jonathan D. Sugimoto, Juliet R. C. Pulliam, Kathleen A. Ryan, Paul D. Myers, Joan B. Castleman, Randell Doty, Jackie Johnson, Jim Stringfellow, Nadia Kovacevich, Joe Brew, Lai Ling Cheung, Brad Caron, Gloria Lipori, Christopher A. Harle, Charles Alexander, Yang Yang, Ira M. Longini, M. Elizabeth Halloran, J. Glenn Morris, Parker A. Small
Research Article | published 09 Dec 2014 | PLOS ONE 10.1371/journal.pone.0114479

Socio-Psychological Factors Driving Adult Vaccination: A Qualitative Study
Ana Wheelock, Anam Parand, Bruno Rigole, Angus Thomson, Marisa Miraldo, Charles Vincent, Nick Sevdalis
Research Article | published 09 Dec 2014 | PLOS ONE 10.1371/journal.pone.0113503

Expanding the breadth of an HIV-1 vaccine

Science
12 December 2014 vol 346, issue 6215, pages 1261-1424
http://www.sciencemag.org/current.dtl

Perspective
HIV
Expanding the breadth of an HIV-1 vaccine
Gilad Ofek1, Ron Diskin2
Author Affiliations
1Institute for Bioscience and Biotechnology Research, University of Maryland, Rockville, MD, USA.
2Department of Structural Biology, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot 76100, Israel.

One of the main problems encountered thus far in the quest for an effective HIV-1 vaccine has been that injected immunogens—virus-derived proteins against which an immune response is sought—generally only elicit antibodies with a narrow breadth of HIV-1 neutralization (1). During chronic infection, however, ∼10 to 30% of individuals naturally develop highly efficient antibodies that can neutralize multiple HIV-1 viral strains. These broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) have provided a template for the design of immunogens aimed at eliciting similar antibodies upon vaccination. On page 1380 of this issue, McGuire et al. (2) show that immunogens derived from the viral envelope glycoprotein of HIV-1 preferentially activate B cells that produce only narrow neutralizing antibodies (nNAbs). This supersedes the activation of B cells that produce the desired bNAbs, when both are present in the same pool of cells and are exposed to the same immunogen, possibly explaining the inability of previous vaccine candidates to achieve protective immune responses. By modifying the immunogen, McGuire et al. show that this preferential activation can be reversed in favor of the desired B cells, offering exciting new promise for vaccine design.

Inequalities in social capital and health between people with and without disabilities

Social Science & Medicine
Volume 126, In Progress (February 2015)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/02779536/126

Inequalities in social capital and health between people with and without disabilities
Original Research Article
Pages 26-35
Johanna Mithen, Zoe Aitken, Anne Ziersch, Anne M. Kavanagh
Abstract
Highlights
:: Australian adults with disabilities have less access to social capital.
:: Australian adults with disabilities have poorer self-rated health.
:: Lower levels of social capital explain little of the health inequalities.
:: People with psychological and intellectual impairments fare worst.

Participation in medical research as a resource-seeking strategy in socio-economically vulnerable communities: call for research and action

Tropical Medicine & International Health
January 2015 Volume 20, Issue 1 Pages 1–119
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/tmi.2014.20.issue-1/issuetoc

Original Article
Participation in medical research as a resource-seeking strategy in socio-economically vulnerable communities: call for research and action
Raffaella M. Ravinetto1,2,*, Muhammed O. Afolabi3,4, Joseph Okebe3,4, Jennifer Ilo Van uil5,6,
Pascal Lutumba7,8, Hypolite Muhindo Mavoko8, Alain Nahum9, Halidou Tinto10, Adamu Addissie11, Umberto D’Alessandro3,4,12 and Koen Peeters Grietens12,13,14
Article first published online: 10 OCT 2014
DOI: 10.1111/tmi.12396
Abstract
The freedom to consent to participate in medical research is a complex subject, particularly in socio-economically vulnerable communities, where numerous factors may limit the efficacy of the informed consent process. Informal consultation among members of the Switching the Poles Clinical Research Network coming from various sub-Saharan African countries, that is Burkina Faso, The Gambia, Rwanda, Ethiopia, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Benin, seems to support the hypothesis that in socio-economical vulnerable communities with inadequate access to health care, the decision to participate in research is often taken irrespectively of the contents of the informed consent interview, and it is largely driven by the opportunity to access free or better quality care and other indirect benefits. Populations’ vulnerability due to poverty and/or social exclusion should obviously not lead to exclusion from medical research, which is most often crucially needed to address their health problems. Nonetheless, to reduce the possibility of exploitation, there is the need to further investigate the complex links between socio-economical vulnerability, access to health care and individual freedom to decide on participation in medical research. This needs bringing together clinical researchers, social scientists and bioethicists in transdisciplinary collaborative research efforts that require the collective input from researchers, research sponsors and funders.

Toward a Functional Definition of a “Rare Disease” for Regulatory Authorities and Funding Agencies

Value in Health
Volume 17, Issue 8, p757-896 December 2014
http://www.valueinhealthjournal.com/current

Toward a Functional Definition of a “Rare Disease” for Regulatory Authorities and Funding Agencies
Joe T.R. Clarke, MD, PhD, Doug Coyle, PhD, Gerald Evans, MD, Janet Martin, PharmD, Eric Winquist, MD, MSc
Published Online: October 18, 2014
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jval.2014.08.2672
Abstract
Background
The designation of a disease as “rare” is associated with some substantial benefits for companies involved in new drug development, including expedited review by regulatory authorities and relaxed criteria for reimbursement. How “rare disease” is defined therefore has major financial implications, both for pharmaceutical companies and for insurers or public drug reimbursement programs. All existing definitions are based, somewhat arbitrarily, on disease incidence or prevalence.
Objectives
What is proposed here is a functional definition of rare based on an assessment of the feasibility of measuring the efficacy of a new treatment in conventional randomized controlled trials, to inform regulatory authorities and funding agencies charged with assessing new therapies being considered for public funding.
Methods
It involves a five-step process, involving significant negotiations between patient advocacy groups, pharmaceutical companies, physicians, and public drug reimbursement programs, designed to establish the feasibility of carrying out a randomized controlled trial with sufficient statistical power to show a clinically significant treatment effect.
Results and Conclusions
The steps are as follows: 1) identification of a specific disease, including appropriate genetic definition; 2) identification of clinically relevant outcomes to evaluate efficacy; 3) establishment of the inherent variability of measurements of clinically relevant outcomes; 4) calculation of the sample size required to assess the efficacy of a new treatment with acceptable statistical power; and 5) estimation of the difficulty of recruiting an adequate sample size given the estimated prevalence or incidence of the disorder in the population and the inclusion criteria to be used.

From Google Scholar+ [to 13 December 2014]

From Google Scholar & other sources: Selected Journal Articles, Newsletters, Dissertations, Theses, Commentary

Frontiers in Microbiology
5:741
The case for a rational genome-based vaccine against malaria
Review ARTICLE
Carla Proietti1 and Denise Doolan1*
1QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Australia
doi: 10.3389/fmicb.2014.00741
Historically, vaccines have been designed to mimic the immunity induced by natural exposure to the target pathogen, but this approach has not been effective for any parasitic pathogens of humans or complex pathogens that cause chronic disease in humans, such as Plasmodium. Despite intense efforts by many laboratories around the world on different aspects of Plasmodium spp. molecular and cell biology, epidemiology and immunology, progress towards the goal of an effective malaria vaccine has been disappointing. The premise of rational vaccine design is to induce the desired immune response against the key pathogen antigens or epitopes targeted by protective immune responses. We advocate that development of an optimally efficacious malaria vaccine will need to improve on nature, and that this can be accomplished by rational vaccine design facilitated by mining genomic, proteomic and transcriptomic datasets in the context of relevant biological function. In our opinion, modern genome-based rational vaccine design offers enormous potential above and beyond that of whole-organism vaccines approaches established over 200 years ago where immunity is likely suboptimal due to the many genetic and immunological host-parasite adaptations evolved to allow the Plasmodium parasite to coexist in the human host, and which are associated with logistic and regulatory hurdles for production and delivery.

Journal of Racial and Ethnic Health Disparities
December 2014
http://link.springer.com/journal/40615
Racial/Ethnic Disparities in HPV Vaccine Uptake Among a Sample of College Women
Chukwuemeka Okafor, Xingdi Hu, Robert L Cook
Abstract
Objective
The aim of this study is to determine the association between racial/ethnic status and uptake and completion of the HPV vaccine series in college women.
Methods
Participants were recruited from a large university in North Central Florida. Young women between 18 and 26 years of age who were currently enrolled in a college course comprised the study sample. Participants completed an anonymous online survey that assessed sociodemographic characteristics, sexual behaviors, gynecological healthcare utilization, and perception of risk to HPV-associated diseases. Multivariable analysis was conducted to determine the relationship between racial/ethnic status and HPV vaccination status.
Results
Of the 835 with complete data (51.0 % white, 16.5 % black, 13.8 % Hispanic, 8.3 % Asian, and 9.9 % other), 53 % had initiated (receipt of at least one dose) the three-dose HPV vaccine series. Of those who initiated, 70 % indicated that they had completed all three doses. In adjusted analysis, blacks were significantly less likely to report initiation [adjusted prevalence ratio (aPR) = 0.78; 95 % confidence interval (CI), 0.63, 0.97] and completion (aPR = 0.64; 95 % CI: 0.48, 0.84) of the three dose HPV vaccine as compared to whites. Although completion rates were lower in all other racial/ethnic groups as compared to whites, these rates did not reach statistical significance.
Conclusions
These findings are consistent with research from other types of settings and demonstrate lower initiation and completion rates of HPV vaccine among black women attending college as compared to their white counterparts. Additional research is needed to understand why black college women have low initiation and completion rates.

Special Focus Newsletters
MVI Update – PATH Malaria Vaccine Initiative
December 2014
:: Greetings from the director
:: Japan’s GHIT Fund announces award to MVI
:: Biting back? Immunize mosquitoes
:: RTS,S submitted to European regulatory authority
:: Direct Membrane-Feeding Assay Workshop
:: Interview with Rick King, MVI R&D Director

Media/Policy Watch [to 13 December 2014]

Media/Policy Watch
This section is intended to alert readers to substantive news, analysis and opinion from the general media on vaccines, immunization, global; public health and related themes. Media Watch is not intended to be exhaustive, but indicative of themes and issues CVEP is actively tracking. This section will grow from an initial base of newspapers, magazines and blog sources, and is segregated from Journal Watch above which scans the peer-reviewed journal ecology.
We acknowledge the Western/Northern bias in this initial selection of titles and invite suggestions for expanded coverage. We are conservative in our outlook in adding news sources which largely report on primary content we are already covering above. Many electronic media sources have tiered, fee-based subscription models for access. We will provide full-text where content is published without restriction, but most publications require registration and some subscription level.

AP (Associated Press)
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/fronts/HOME?SITE=AP
Accessed 13 December 2014
California battles whooping cough epidemic
SAN DIEGO (AP) — California officials are battling the worst whooping cough epidemic to hit the state in seven decades as a recent rebound in…
By: JULIE WATSON — Dec. 12, 2014 12:12 AM EST

Council on Foreign Relations
http://www.cfr.org/
Accessed 13 December 2014
Ebola Update: Assessment From Africa
9 December 2014
Speakers: Nancy A. Aossey, resident and Chief Executive Officer, International Medical Corps, Laurie Garrett, Senior Fellow for Global Health, Council on Foreign Relations; Author, Ebola: Story of an Outbreak, and David Nabarro, David Nabarro
Presider: Richard E. Besser, Chief Health and Medical Editor, ABC News
December 9, 2014

The Guardian
http://www.guardiannews.com/
Accessed 13 December 2014
Sierra Leone bans Christmas and New Year gatherings over Ebola risk
Freetown residents will be barred from joining their extended families in rural areas, in move to be enforced by the army
Sarah Boseley in Freetown
Saturday 13 December 2014 07.26 EST
Christmas and New Year gatherings have been banned by the government throughout Sierra Leone for fear the Ebola virus will be spread to rural villages as people go home to celebrate.
The edict, which will be enforced by the army, means those who live in the capital, Freetown, will be barred from travelling to join their extended families. The city’s residents account for a third of the country’s population. A “lock-down” is reported to also be happening in nearby Port Loko, which is the other big urban area with soaring cases.
Palo Conteh, the minister of defence who heads the government’s Ebola response unit, said on Friday there would be “no Christmas and New Year celebrations this year. We will ensure that everybody remains at home to reflect on Ebola.
“Military personnel will be on the streets at Christmas and the New Year to stop any street celebrations.”
More than a quarter of the population of Sierra Leone is Christian, although Islam is the dominant religion. Christmas decorations are for sale at the roadside markets and there are Christmas trees in many public buildings.
But there have been serious concerns that the number of Ebola cases could soar over the festive period. Public gatherings are already banned to avoid contagion.
Schools are closed across the three west African countries where the epidemic is raging – Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea – disrupting the education of five million children. Bars and clubs are closed. Football games are among the sports caught up in the ban. Churches have been allowed to hold services, but must separate the members of the congregation.
Travel is already greatly restricted in Sierra Leone by night-time curfews enforced by army checkpoints. Many villages and even whole districts where Ebola cases have occurred are quarantined for 21 days – by which time anybody infected would show symptoms. Some villages have been quarantined for months as one case occurs a couple of weeks after another…

Wall Street Journal
http://online.wsj.com/home-page?_wsjregion=na,us&_homepage=/home/us
Accessed 13 December 2014
Health Commissioner: Flu prevalent in New York
12 December 2014 – ALBANY, N.Y. — New York’s acting health commissioner has declared influenza “prevalent” in the state, and says health care workers who aren’t vaccinated must wear masks around patients.

HPV Vaccine Does Not Increase Risky Sexual Behavior: Study
12/09/14
A new study says there is no reason to worry that an HPV vaccine will lead to risky sexual behavior.

Ebola/EVD: Additional Coverage [to 13 December 2014]

Ebola/EVD: Additional Coverage

UNMEER [UN Mission for Ebola Emergency Response] @UNMEER #EbolaResponse
UNMEER’s website is aggregating and presenting content from various sources including its own External Situation Reports, press releases, statements and what it titles “developments.” We present a composite below from the week ending 13 December 2014.

UNMEER External Situation Reports
UNMEER External Situation Reports are issued daily (excepting Saturday) with content organized under these headings:
– Highlights
– Key Political and Economic Developments
– Human Rights
– Response Efforts and Health
– Logistics
– Outreach and Education
– Resource Mobilisation
– Essential Services
– Upcoming Events
The “Week in Review” will present highly-selected elements of interest from these reports. The full daily report is available as a pdf using the link provided by the report date.

12 December 2014 |
Key Political and Economic Developments
1. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon yesterday announced the appointment of Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed of Mauritania as his new Special Representative and Head of UNMEER. Mr. Ould Cheikh Ahmed will succeed Anthony Banbury, who will return to New York in early January 2015. The Secretary-General expressed his gratitude to Mr. Banbury for his vision and leadership of UNMEER, and for his commitment to fighting this unprecedented EVD outbreak. Bringing more than 28 years of development and humanitarian assistance experience with the United Nations in Africa, the Middle East and Eastern Europe, Mr. Ould Cheikh Ahmed is currently Deputy Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Deputy Head of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), United Nations Resident Coordinator, Humanitarian Coordinator and United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Resident Representative. He served as Resident Coordinator, Humanitarian Coordinator and UNDP Resident Representative in Syria (2008-2012) and Yemen (2012-2014).
2. The Red Cross warned on Thursday of a possible rise in the rate of EVD infections in West Africa as people travel across the region during the festive holidays. Urging people to take extra care to limit the spread of the virus, International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) Secretary General Elhadj As Sy said increasing rates were not inevitable but were a real risk. “Now is the time to be even more vigilant,” he told an audience at the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London. “We all welcome the plateauing and the signs of declines we are seeing in some places, but that should not be a reason for complacency.”
Response Efforts and Health
5. The Liberian Ministry of Health and Social Welfare (MOHSW) and UNDP visited eleven out of the fifteen counties to verify, and in some cases create, lists of Ebola response workers that are still to be paid. The MOHSW committed to paying eight of the counties this week for three months back-dated pay, though payments are yet to be verified with the Ministry of Finance. Challenges to making payments continue to emerge, including that in several counties individuals refuse to open bank accounts because they have never had bank accounts before and are not comfortable opening one for the first time.
Resource Mobilisation
11. Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah has granted US$ 35 million to fight EVD, the Islamic Development Bank said Thursday. The grant will provide schools and airports in West Africa with heat sensors and medical equipment to help prevent and treat the illness, Ahmed Mohamed Ali, president of the Jeddah-based IDB, said in a statement. The funds will also help to establish specialized treatment centers in the most affected countries — Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia.
12. The OCHA Ebola Virus Outbreak Overview of Needs and Requirements, now totaling US$ 1.5 billion, has been funded for $ 1.05 billion, which is around 70 percent of the total ask.
13. The Ebola Response Multi-Partner Trust Fund currently has US$ 108.2 million in commitments. In total $ 131 million has been pledged.
Outreach and Education
15. According to WHO, on 9 December there were a total of 21 sub-prefectures across Guinea where EVD response efforts are facing community resistance. These sub-prefectures are located in the three main areas affected by the epidemic: the Forest Region; central-northern Guinea and Conakry and adjacent prefectures. Resistance is often due to insufficient sensitization, lack of trust stemming from the non-delivery on promises by EVD responders (such as ambulance transportation or kit distribution) and the fact that many patients admitted to the ETCs are not surviving. The National Ebola Response Cell (NERC), with UNMEER support, is taking action to resolve bottlenecks in the delivery of hygiene and supply kits and the establishment of Community Watch Committees which are critical to stop transmission and lift resistance.

11 December 2014 |
Key Political and Economic Developments
2. US magazine TIME has declared the Ebola fighters their “Person of the Year 2014”. In explaining its choice, the magazine noted: “The rest of the world can sleep at night because a group of men and women are willing to stand and fight. For tireless acts of courage and mercy, for buying the world time to boost its defenses, for risking, for persisting, for sacrificing and saving, the Ebola fighters are TIME’s 2014 Person of the Year.” The magazine also notes the importance of learning from this outbreak, to strengthen healthcare and response services and be better prepared in future.
Response Efforts and Health
4. Sierra Leonean authorities have imposed a two-week lockdown in Kono district, where a major EVD flare-up has gone largely unreported until now. Although rapid reaction has helped contain the virus to about half of the 15 chiefdoms in Kono, WHO teams that arrived in the area 10 days ago were taken aback at the situation they encountered. In the space of 11 days, two WHO teams buried 87 victims, including a nurse and an ambulance driver enlisted to help dispose of corpses piling up in the local hospital. 25 people had died in a hastily cordoned off section of the hospital in the five days before the team arrived. “We are only seeing the ears of the hippo,” said Dr. Amara Jambai, Sierra Leone’s Director of Disease Prevention and Control, expressing concern that the official figures underrepresent the size of the outbreak in Kono district.
5. UNDP has completed 2 prison isolation units for incoming prisoners in Freetown, Sierra Leone. The two facilities will serve as observation centers for new inmates (male and female separately) in Freetown’s correctional centers, to help prevent an outbreak among the prison population. The units will open officially on Friday 12 December. Further, UNDP is scaling up a nationwide prison sensitization and equipment campaign to improve conditions and strengthen protection against the spread of EVD inside detention facilities.

10 December 2014 |
Key Political and Economic Developments
1. The government of Liberia, with the support of UNMEER and regional participation from Sierra Leone, Guinea, Mali and Nigeria, organized a technical meeting on cross-border coordination on the prevention and control of EVD. In her opening statement, President Johnson Sirleaf emphasized the need to pool shared regional resources to counter EVD across the whole region. She also mentioned the cross-country coordination of specialized national institutions and the need for ease of access to resources available in border areas, as well as managing the porous borders. UNMEER SRSG Banbury stated the clear commitment of the UN to support the regional counter-EVD initiatives. A Strategic Framework for Cross-Border Collaboration on EVD Prevention and Control was elaborated at the meeting.
2. More foreign health workers are needed to help tackle the epidemic, which is spreading quickly in western Sierra Leone and deep in the forested interior of Guinea, Special Envoy Nabarro said in Geneva on Tuesday, adding that the outbreak is still flaming strongly in western Sierra Leone and some parts of the interior of Guinea. “We don’t yet have the full number of functioning treatment centers and places where people who are ill can be kept away from others,” he said. Dr. Nabarro expressed confidence that there will be an improvement in Freetown in the next few weeks. The rise in the spread of EVD in western Sierra Leone reflects the fact that tribal-led communities have yet to fully accept the outbreak and take action to avoid infection, he said.
3. EVD is still “running ahead” of efforts to contain it, WHO Director General Margaret Chan said, warning against complacency. The risk to the world “is always there” while the outbreak continues, Dr. Chan said. “It’s not as bad as it was in September. But going forward we are now hunting the virus, chasing after the virus. Hopefully we can bring the number of cases down to zero.” She said a key part of bringing the outbreak under control was ensuring communities understood EVD, as teams going into some areas were still facing resistance. Community participation is a critical success factor for EVD control, Dr. Chan said. “In all the outbreaks that WHO were able to manage successfully, that was a success element and this is not happening in this current situation.”
Response Efforts and Health
6. Several doctors in Sierra Leone were on strike for a second day on Tuesday to demand better care for medical workers who catch EVD, after a spate of recent deaths. The doctors want assurances that they will have access to life saving equipment, like dialysis machines, if they become infected.
Outreach and Education
15. Yesterday, on Anti-Corruption Day, UNDP in collaboration with Liberia’s Anti-Corruption Commission and the Carter Center set up public conversations on community radio stations in Bong, Lofa, Rural Montserrado and Nimba counties regarding how EVD response funds are used locally. County task forces collected and shared data for the wider public on who the donors are, how much they are funding, what activities and equipment they are contributing to, and which groups are being targeted. Community members made suggestions on existing gaps and possible priorities. To encourage people to listen to the shows in remote areas, 1,200 solar radios manufactured by South Africa based NGO Lifeline Energy were distributed across the four counties. UNDP plans to scale up the initiative and distribute another 3,000 radios targeting patients in ETUs, survivors and others.

9 December 2014 |
Response Efforts and Health
4. Yesterday UNMEER received 20,000 sets of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) from the Japan Disaster Relief Team. This is the first batch of 700,000 sets of PPEs committed by the government of Japan to UNMEER to help provide critical protection to healthcare workers in Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone and Mali. At the official handover ceremony in Accra, SRSG Banbury thanked the government of Japan and stressed the need for continued contributions from partners around the world to keep up the fight against EVD.
6. Community resistance increased in the past week in certain areas of Guinea, even leading to violent actions by local communities against EVD responders — including a UNICEF contractor. At the same time, resistance has been overcome in other areas.
Essential Services
17. Two EVD-waste management machines have arrived in Freetown, Sierra Leone. The machines will be installed in two EVD treatment facilities: in a military hospital in Freetown and the Hastings Treatment Centre in Waterloo. Two medical waste advisors and two machinists will ensure the machines are installed properly, work effectively, and that staff are trained on how to use them safely. The sterilizing machines, known as autoclaves, decontaminate and compress used medical equipment and waste through several cycles of high-pressure steam and vacuuming, allowing for their safe disposal. The machines are the first of their kind in any of the Ebola-affected countries. UNDP expects a total of 11 autoclaves for ETCs across the country.

8 December 2014 |
Key Political and Economic Developments
1. Liberia’s Supreme Court on Sunday lifted a government order suspending campaigning in and around the capital for next week’s senate election, imposed on the grounds that campaigning risks spreading EVD. President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf’s government imposed the executive order last week, banning the holding of political rallies in Montserrado County, which includes the capital. It was contested by her son, Robert Sirleaf, who is running as an independent candidate for the senate. He had appealed for a temporary lifting of the ban, arguing that to stop campaigning in just one part of the country is discriminatory. The court will hear a petition on Monday by some political parties, civil society groups and others to postpone national senate polls until EVD is defeated.
2. The National Coordinator of Guinea’s National Ebola Response Cell (NERC) informed UNMEER that, on instructions from President Condé, a number of cabinet ministers left for the field to meet with local authorities and the population in sub-prefectures featuring community resistance. The ministers were instructed to sensitize and inform the population about the government’s response strategy, reinforce the authority of the prefectural EVD response coordinators, and ensure the swifter deployment of comités de veille (community watch committees), which President Condé has criticized as progressing too slowly. President Condé has also instructed the NERC and its pillar heads to start undertaking field missions from 8 December to show the government’s resolve to intensify response efforts.
Human Rights
3. WHO informed that EVD contact tracing efforts had to be suspended in the village of Sanassia in Sanguiana sub-prefecture (Kouroussa prefecture, Guinea) as well as in the sub-prefecture of Watanga (Macenta prefecture) due to local community resistance, including alleged death threats against EVD response workers.
5. Around 20 United Nations peacekeepers placed under quarantine in Mali after they were potentially exposed to EVD more than three weeks ago have been released. The soldiers were being treated at a clinic in the capital Bamako for injuries sustained while serving in MINUSMA, when a nurse working at the facility died of EVD. The MINUSMA solders were then placed under quarantine, but have not presented symptoms of illness and have therefore been released. Mali has registered eight cases of EVD so far: 7 confirmed and 1 probable. 6 patients have died.
7. An UNMIL peacekeeper who contracted EVD has arrived in the Netherlands for treatment on Saturday. The Nigerian man was admitted to the University Medical Center in Utrecht. The Netherlands follows Germany, France and Switzerland in taking on EVD patients at the request of the World Health Organization.
Essential Services
19. UNICEF released essential drugs and supplies to three ngo partners to cover 40% of health facilities, as part of the restoration of essential health services effort in Liberia.

Vaccines and Global Health: The Week in Review – 6 December 2014

Vaccines and Global Health: The Week in Review is a weekly digest  summarizing news, events, announcements, peer-reviewed articles and research in the global vaccine ethics and policy space. Content is aggregated from key governmental, NGO, international organization and industry sources, key peer-reviewed journals, and other media channels. This summary proceeds from the broad base of themes and issues monitored by the Center for Vaccine Ethics & Policy in its work: it is not intended to be exhaustive in its coverage. You are viewing the blog version of our weekly digest, typically comprised of between 30 and 40 posts below all dated with the current issue date

.Request an Email Summary: Vaccines and Global Health : The Week in Review is published as a single email summary, scheduled for release each Saturday evening before midnight (EDT in the U.S.). If you would like to receive the email version, please send your request to david.r.curry@centerforvaccineethicsandpolicy.org.
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pdf version A pdf of the current issue is available here: Vaccines and Global Health_The Week in Review_6 December 2014

blog edition: comprised of the approx. 35+ entries posted below on this date.

Twitter:  Readers can also follow developments on twitter: @vaxethicspolicy.
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Links:  We endeavor to test each link as we incorporate it into any post, but recognize that some links may become “stale” as publications and websites reorganize content over time. We apologize in advance for any links that may not be operative. We believe the contextual information in a given post should allow retrieval, but please contact us as above for assistance if necessary.
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David R. Curry, MS
Executive Director
Center for Vaccine Ethics and Policy
a program of the
– Division of Medical Ethics, NYU Medical School
– The Wistar Institute Vaccine Center
– Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia Vaccine Education Center
Associate Faculty, Division of Medical Ethics, NYU Medical School

POLIO [to 6 December 2014]

POLIO [to 6 December 2014]
Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC)

GPEI Update: Polio this week – As of 3 December 2014
Global Polio Eradication Initiative
[Editor’s Excerpt and text bolding]
Full report: http://www.polioeradication.org/Dataandmonitoring/Poliothisweek.aspx
:: In the north of Madagascar, supplementary immunization activities are planned for December in response to the outbreak of circulating vaccine derived poliovirus. National Immunization Days are planned for January. The aim is to boost immunity across the country against all strains of poliovirus using trivalent oral polio vaccine.
:: For the first time ever, only 1 case of wild poliovirus has been reported in Africa in the last 4 months. The case had onset of paralysis on 11 August in Somalia.
Afghanistan
:: Two new wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) cases were reported in the past week in Afghanistan, 1 in Behsud district (previously uninfected in 2014) of Nangarhar province and 1 in Qalat district of Zabul province (previously uninfected in 2014). The most recent case had onset of paralysis on 5 November in Kandahar district.
:: The total number of WPV1 cases for 2014 in Afghanistan is now 23 compared to 11 at this time last year.
:: Given the growing outbreak in neighbouring Pakistan, Afghanistan continues to conduct supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) to limit the spread of imported polioviruses. Subnational Immunization Days (SNIDs) are planned in high risk areas of the south and east using bivalent oral polio vaccine (OPV) on 7 – 9 and 21 – 23 December.
Pakistan
:: Eight new wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) cases were reported in the past week. Two are from Balochistan province (1 in Killa Abdullah district and 1 in Killa Saifulah district, which has not previously been infected in 2014); 5 from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province (2 from Peshawar district, 2 from Tank district and 1 from Swat district, which has not reported cases so far in 2014); and 1 from Shikarpur in Sindh province, which has also not reported cases so far in 2014. The total number of WPV1 cases in Pakistan in 2014 is now 268, compared to 70 at this time last year. The most recent WPV1 case had onset of paralysis on 16 November, from Peshawar, KP.
:: Immunization activities are continuing with particular focus on known high-risk areas, in particular newly opened previously inaccessible areas of FATA. At exit and entry points of conflict-affected areas that are still inaccessible during polio campaigns, 100 permanent vaccination points are being used to reach internally displaced families as they move in and out of the inaccessible area. Over 1 million people have been vaccinated in the past few months at transit points and in host communities, including over 850,000 children under 10 years old. –
West Africa
:: The Ebola crisis in western Africa is impacting on the implementation or polio eradication activities in Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone. Supplementary immunization activities in these countries have been postponed and the quality of acute flaccid paralysis surveillance has markedly decreased this year.
:: Even as polio programme staff across West Africa support efforts to control the Ebola outbreak affecting the region, efforts are being made in those countries not affected by Ebola to vaccinate children against polio.

EBOLA/EVD [to 6 December 2014]

EBOLA/EVD [to 6 December 2014]
Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC); “Threat to international peace and security” (UN Security Council)

Editor’s Note: Last week’s two Ebola/EVD milestones
The first milestone was that UNMEER and WHO leaders reported on progress against the so-called 70-70-60 target announced for December 1. While offering upbeat reports on progress in the three most-affected countries and Mali, officials confirmed that the target would not be fully met, noting continuing data reporting issues and a flare-up of EVD in the western part of Sierra Leone (in particular, see the briefing transcript by WHO ADG Bruce Aylward just below).

For reference, the 70-70-60 target was established as UNMEER was launching operations in early October and was intended to “ensure that by 1 December, 70% of people with Ebola who died of the disease could be buried with a safe and dignified manner that would minimise the risk of spread, and also that 70% of people with the disease could be treated in a manner that would isolate them and prevent further spread of the disease” during the initial 60 days of action.

WHO ADG Bruce Aylward made clear in his press briefing that:
“…The last two big things I think that we’ve learned is, and I want to be absolutely clear on this, is that while there’s been progress towards 70-70, real progress and meaningful progress, this is not good enough to stop Ebola. And probably the single biggest alarming thing that I hear as I work in these countries and speak to people outside is that great, now that we’re on track, because the disease is slowing down with this 70% achievement, to stopping Ebola.

“You’re not on track by getting 70-70-60; you have reached a way, an important milestone along the way. You’ve managed to slow down the outbreak and we’re seeing now in some areas what we call, bend the curve, of the outbreak which of course is very, very important. But that is not going to get you to zero. You eventually have to get 100% safe burials, you eventually have to get 100% of people into treatment facilities and you also have got to complement that with the strategies around case finding and contact tracing. Now that the case numbers have come down enough, that is going to be the big emphasis in those low incidence areas to get this thing finished…

… So as we go forward, right now the key thing is to complete the investment. We’ve got to get to 100% safe burials, 100% isolation and then 100% of cases being found, contacts being traced. That’s how you stop Ebola.”

In reporting on the status of the next milestone goal – 100-100-90 (100% safe burials, 100% effective isolation/contact tracing, by 1 January 2015) – WHO and UNMEER officials largely deferred on assessing the probability of meeting that target or the implications of missing it.

The second milestone was the first significant engagement of the larger economic and social implications of the EVD crisis and a “post-EVD” re-building process. The UN Economic and Social Council sponsored a special meeting titled “Ebola: A threat to sustainable development” on 5 December 2014. This meeting included briefings by UNMEER, WHO, affected countries and other stakeholders, and an extended panel discussion facilitated by Dr. Paul Farmer of PIH (Partners in Health). Video and other content on this meeting is also just below.

Please note that our more extensive coverage of Ebola/EVD activity – including detailed coverage of UNMEER and other INGO/agency activity – will now be available at the end of this digest. Please also note that many of the organizations and journals we cover continue to publish important EVD content which is threaded throughout this edition.

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WHO – Ebola/EVD Press Conference (Geneva, 1 December 2014)
1 Dec 2014 – Subject: Ebola briefing: WHO response and challenges to control the Ebola outbreak. Speaker: Bruce Aylward, Assistant Director General in charge of the operational response WHO response and challenges to control the Ebola outbreak
Speakers: Dr Bruce Aylward, WHO Assistant Director-General, Polio and Emergencies
:: Video of the press briefing
:: Audio of the press briefing mp3, 49 Mb [01:11:00]
:: Transcript of the press briefing pdf, 236kb

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UN Economic and Social Council: Special meeting on “Ebola: A threat to sustainable development”
5 December 2014
As the United Nations and the international community step up efforts to respond to the Ebola outbreak, the Economic and Social Council is convening a Special Meeting on 5 December 2014 at UN Headquarters in New York to discuss in-depth the economic and social impact of Ebola on the affected countries, the region and the rest of the world identify solutions for a comprehensive and multi-sectoral response.

:: Programme
Following opening statements by the Secretary General, WHO DC, UNMEER leadership, and affected countries, an interactive session of experts discussing the issues above was facilitated by Dr. Paul Farmer, Partners in Health.

:: Concept note
Objectives of the event
The ECOSOC Special Event aims to:
-Provide context on the economic and social impact of Ebola in affected countries, their
neighbours and the rest of the world;
-Situate the Ebola crisis in the context of the global health equity agenda;
-Identify concrete ways to link the current response to longer-term systems strengthening
in all three affected countries;
-Explore specific policy recommendations and mechanisms needed to address the
multidimensional nature of the Ebola outbreak; and
-Propose appropriate, short, medium and long term solutions.
Expected Outcome
The outcome of the event will be a summary by the President of ECOSOC, highlighting the main conclusions and proposals for follow-up actions.

Video Segments – English
Martin Sajdik (ECOSOC) on Ebola – Pre… 00:17:01
David Nabarro (UN Special Envoy), Ebo… 00:09:29
Margaret Chan (WHO), Ebola: A threat… 00:11:52
Affected Member States Guinea, Sierra… 00:43:26
Sam Kahamba Kutesa (GA President), Eb… 00:06:23
Ban Ki-moon, Ebola: A threat to susta… 00:06:21
Martin Sajdik (ECOSOC), Ebola: A Thre… 00:06:32

5 December 2014
SG/SM/16398-DEV/3156-ECOSOC/6654
Secretary-General Tells Economic and Social Council Ebola’s ‘Hard Lessons’ Show Universal Quality Health Coverage Critical to Post-2015 Development Agenda
Following are UN Secretary General Ban Ki moon’s remarks at the Economic and Social Council meeting on Ebola: a threat to sustainable development, in New York today…

5 December 2014
ECOSOC/6653
Ebola Epidemic Could Drain $3-4 Billion from Sub-Saharan African Economy, Reverse Peacebuilding Gains in Hardest-Hit Nations, Economic and Social Council Told
The deadly Ebola outbreak could inflict $3-4 billion in losses on the Sub-Saharan African economy and had already begun to erode economic growth in the hardest-hit countries, the Economic and Social Council heard today as it considered how the epidemic could endanger sustainable development…
WHO: Ebola Virus Disease (EVD)
Situation report – 3 December 2014 [WHO Roadmap]
Summary
A total of 17,145 confirmed, probable, and suspected cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) have been reported in five affected countries (Guinea, Liberia, Mali, Sierra Leone, and the United States of America) and three previously affected countries (Nigeria, Senegal and Spain) up to the end of 30 November. There have been 6070 reported deaths. Reported case incidence is slightly increasing in Guinea (77 confirmed cases reported in the week to 30 November), stable or declining in Liberia (43 new confirmed cases in the 5 days to 28 November), and is still rising in Sierra Leone (537 new confirmed cases in the week to 30 November). The case fatality rate across the three most-affected countries in all cases with a recorded definitive outcome is 72%; in hospitalized patients the case fatality rate is 60%….

WHO congratulates Spain on ending Ebola transmission
2 December 2014

WHO’s contribution to the Ebola response – Feature
1 December 2014

WHO [to 6 December 2014]

WHO [to 6 December 2014]
:: Global Alert and Response (GAR): Disease Outbreak News (DONs)
Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) – Saudi Arabia 2 December 2014
Between 3 and 19 November 2014, the National IHR Focal Point for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) notified WHO of 18 additional cases of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infection, including 4 deaths….
…Globally, the WHO has been notified of 927 laboratory-confirmed cases of infection with MERS-CoV, including at least 338 related deaths.
WHO advice
Based on the current situation and available information, WHO encourages all Member States to continue their surveillance for acute respiratory infections and to carefully review any unusual patterns….
…WHO does not advise special screening at points of entry with regard to this event nor does it currently recommend the application of any travel or trade restrictions.

:: The Weekly Epidemiological Record (WER) for 5 December 2014, vol. 89, 49 (pp. 545–560) includes:
– Invasive bacterial vaccine-preventable disease sentinel hospital surveillance network: summary of a strategic review and next steps, 2008–2014
– African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control: progress report, 2013–2014
http://www.who.int/entity/wer/2014/wer8949.pdf?ua=1

:: Call for nominations for the Immunization Practices Advisory Committee (IPAC)
pdf, 124kb 04 December 2014
Deadline for application 2 February 2015

:: New WHO guide to prevent and control cervical cancer
3 December 2014
New guidance from WHO aims to help countries better prevent and control cervical cancer. The disease is one of the world’s deadliest – but most easily preventable – forms of cancer for women, responsible for more than 270,000 deaths annually, 85% of which occur in developing countries. The new “Comprehensive cervical cancer control: a guide to essential practice” will be launched at the World Cancer Leaders’ Summit in Melbourne, Australia on 3 December 2014…

WHO Regional Offices [to 6 December 2014]

WHO Regional Offices
WHO African Region AFRO
:: HIV prevention: offering hope to victims of sexual violence – 01 December 2014

WHO Region of the Americas PAHO
:: Training on clinical management of Ebola begins for medical and nursing professionals from Latin America (12/03/2014)

WHO South-East Asia Region SEARO
WHO brings Partners together for Ebola Preparedness
:: 5 December 2014
WHO brought together representatives from Member States, donors, response partners and collaborating centres to update them on Ebola Virus Disease.
Led by the Regional Director, Dr Poonam Khetrapal Singh, WHO experts briefed partners on preparedness of the South-East Asia Region. The Partners Meeting on Ebola Virus Disease was held at WHO’s South-East Asia Regional Office in New Delhi on 5 December 2014.

WHO European Region EURO
:: Spain ends Ebola transmission 03-12-2014

WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region EMRO
:: International Day of Persons with Disabilities, 3 December 2014
This year’s theme is “Sustainable Development: The Promise of Technology”. Technology can be a way to break down barriers for people with disability as devices become faster, cheaper and more accessible. In recognition of its importance, WHO is launching the Global Cooperation on Assistive Health Technology (GATE) initiative in partnership with United Nations (UN) agencies, international organizations, professional organizations, academia and organizations for people with disabilities.
On this year’s International Day of Persons with Disabilities, WHO is renewing its commitment to continue to work constructively with governments towards inclusion and equal opportunities for people with disabilities.

:: Suspected Ebola virus disease case in Pakistan 3 December 2014
Joint press release by the Ministry of National Health Services, Regulation and Coordination and the World Health Organization (WHO) on follow-up on the suspected Ebola virus disease case
2 December 2014, Islamabad – The Ministry of National Health Services, Regulation and Coordination in coordination with the National Institute of Health and WHO has sent a four member federal rapid response team consisting of an epidemiologist, laboratory technologist and infectious disease control consultant to undertake an investigation of the suspected Ebola case identified yesterday by Karachi airport authorities and transferred to an appropriate isolation ward at the Jinnah Postgraduate Medical Centre.
Although the clinical picture of the patient is much better than upon his arrival, federal and provincial health authorities together with WHO consider it imperative to pursue full compliance with anti-Ebola protocol. Having returned from the city of Monrovia, the capital of Liberia, less than 21 days ago, the patient remains epidemiologically linked with the disease until biologically proven otherwise…

WHO Western Pacific Region WPRO
:: Churches champion health in Vanuatu
VANUATU, 3 December 2014 – Hundreds of families in Vanuatu accessed free health services such as eye screening and child immunization, thanks to the leadership of the Presbyterian Church of Vanuatu, with support from the Vanuatu Ministry of Health and WHO. This event is part of growing Pacific-wide movement where communities and local organizations are reaching beyond their normal activities to promote health.

NIH Watch [to 6 December 2014]

NIH Watch [to 6 December 2014]
:: Researchers conduct comprehensive genomic study of sub-Saharan Africans
December 4, 2014 — New data resource will enhance disease research and genomic diversity studies.

:: NIH takes step to speed the initiation of clinical research by ensuring use of single IRB
December 3, 2014 — The draft NIH policy proposes that all NIH-funded multi-site studies should use a single IRB.

:: NIH statement on World AIDS Day 2014
December 2, 2014 — Remarkable progress has been made in the fight against HIV/AIDS since the first annual World AIDS Day was commemorated 26 years ago.

:: Sophisticated HIV diagnostics adapted for remote areas
December 1, 2014 — New tool is low-cost, with no electricity needed — NIH study.

Global Fund Watch [to 6 December 2014]

Global Fund Watch [to 6 December 2014]
:: PEPFAR and Partners Launch Pediatric Initiative
01 December 2014
On the occasion of World AIDS Day 2014, the U.S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), the Pediatric HIV Treatment Initiative (PHTI) and the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria announced a new Global Pediatric Antiretroviral (ARV) Commitment-to-Action.” The Commitment-to-Action brings together leading organizations to accelerate the development of new, high-priority pediatric ARV co-formulations for first- and second-line treatment by 2017…

:: Global Fund Backs Plan to End AIDS by 2030
01 December 2014
GENEVA – On World AIDS Day, the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria declared its strong support for a new roadmap developed by UNAIDS, Fast Track: Ending the AIDS Epidemic by 2030. UNAIDS argues that the pace of responding to HIV in the next five years will be fundamental to ending the epidemic…

European Medicines Agency Watch [to 6 December 2014]

European Medicines Agency Watch [to 6 December 2014]
03/12/2014
No evidence that Fluad vaccine caused deaths in Italy
EMA Committee review reassures Member States over safety of flu vaccine
The Pharmacovigilance Risk Assessment Committee (PRAC) of the European Medicines Agency (EMA) has concluded that there is no evidence that Fluad, a flu vaccine manufactured by Novartis, has caused serious events including deaths in Italy. These reports led the Italian Medicines Agency (AIFA) to suspend the use of two batches of Fluad as a precautionary measure on 27 November 2014…

Industry Watch [to 6 December 2014]

Industry Watch [to 6 December 2014]
:: Pfizer Completes Acquisition of Baxter’s Marketed Vaccines
December 01, 2014
NEW YORK–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:PFE) today announced that it has completed the acquisition of Baxter International Inc.’s portfolio of marketed vaccines. The portfolio that was acquired consists of NeisVac-C and FSME-IMMUN/TicoVac. As previously announced, Pfizer also acquired a portion of Baxter’s facility in Orth, Austria, where these vaccines are manufactured…

NeisVac-C is a vaccine that helps protect against meningitis caused by group C meningococci(MenC)…MenC is one of the most prevalent meningococcal serogroups in many parts of the world and vaccination with NeisVac-C has been shown to be highly effective.

FSME-IMMUN/TicoVac is a vaccine that helps protect against tick-borne encephalitis (TBE), an infection of the brain, which is transmitted by the bite of ticks infected with the TBE-virus… FSME-IMMUN/TicoVac is approved in 30 countries and has been marketed for over 30 years with approximately 120 million doses produced since 1976….

CDC/MMWR Watch [to 6 December 2014]

CDC/MMWR Watch [to 6 December 2014]
http://www.cdc.gov/media/index.html

:: Early Data Suggests Potentially Severe Flu Season – Press Release
Thursday, December 4, 2014
Early data suggests that the current 2014-2015 flu season could be severe. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) urges immediate vaccination for anyone still unvaccinated this season and recommends prompt treatment with antiviral drugs for people at high risk of complications who develop flu.

So far this year, seasonal influenza A H3N2 viruses have been most common. There often are more severe flu illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths during seasons when these viruses predominate. For example, H3N2 viruses were predominant during the 2012-2013, 2007-2008, and 2003-2004 seasons, the three seasons with the highest mortality levels in the past decade. All were characterized as “moderately severe.”

Increasing the risk of a severe flu season is the finding that roughly half of the H3N2 viruses analyzed are drift variants: viruses with antigenic or genetic changes that make them different from that season’s vaccine virus. This means the vaccine’s ability to protect against those viruses may be reduced, although vaccinated people may have a milder illness if they do become infected. During the 2007-2008 flu season, the predominant H3N2 virus was a drift variant yet the vaccine had an overall efficacy of 37 percent and 42 percent against H3N2 viruses.

“It’s too early to say for sure that this will be a severe flu season, but Americans should be prepared,” said CDC director Tom Frieden, M.D., M.P.H. “We can save lives with a three-pronged effort to fight the flu: vaccination, prompt treatment for people at high risk of complications, and preventive health measures, such as staying home when you’re sick, to reduce flu spread.”…

:: MMWR Weekly, December 5, 2014 / Vol. 63 / No. 48
– Chikungunya Cases Identified Through Passive Surveillance and Household Investigations — Puerto Rico, May 5–August 12, 2014
– Pertussis Epidemic — California, 2014
– Respiratory Syncytial Virus — United States, July 2012–June 2014
– Notes from the Field: Transmission of Chikungunya Virus in the Continental United States — Florida, 2014
– Announcements: National Influenza Vaccination Week — December 7–13, 2014

Adding It Up 2014: The Costs and Benefits of Investing in Sexual and Reproductive Health

Adding It Up 2014: The Costs and Benefits of Investing in Sexual and Reproductive Health
UNFPA, Guttmacher Institute
2014 :: 56 pages
ISBN: 978-1-934387-18-4
Pdf: English
The 2014 edition of Adding It Up expands the scope of the report and provides new estimates of the needs for and costs and benefits of sexual and reproductive health interventions in the following key areas: contraceptive services; maternal, newborn and other pregnancy-related care; selected services related to HIV prevention; and treating women for four other common STIs.

[Excerpt from press release]
Prioritizing sexual and reproductive health will save millions of lives, says new report
4 December 2014
UNITED NATIONS, New York – A staggering 225 million women in developing countries want to avoid pregnancy but are not using modern contraceptives, and tens of millions of women do not receive the basic pregnancy and delivery care they need. These are the findings of Adding It Up: The Costs and Benefits of Investing in Sexual and Reproductive Health 2014, a report released today by the Guttmacher Institute and UNFPA….
…The benefits of family planning and other essential sexual and reproductive health services – such as pregnancy and newborn care, services for pregnant women living with HIV, and treatment for four other sexually transmitted infections – can dramatically improve maternal and newborn survival, reduce rates of unsafe abortion and nearly eliminate the transmission of HIV from mothers to newborns…

American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene – December 2014

American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
December 2014; 91 (6)
http://www.ajtmh.org/content/current

Modular Laboratories—Cost-Effective and Sustainable Infrastructure for Resource-Limited Settings
Daniel J. Bridges*, James Colborn, Adeline S. T. Chan, Anna M. Winters, Dereje Dengala,
Christen M. Fornadel and Barry Kosloff
Author Affiliations
Akros, Cresta Golfview Grounds, Lusaka, Zambia; President’s Malaria Initiative, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Mozambique; Entomology Branch, Centers for Global Health, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia; Abt Associates Inc., Bethesda, Maryland; President’s Malaria Initiative, U.S. Agency for International Development, Washington, DC; London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Faculty of Tropical Infectious Diseases, Department of Clinical Research, London, United Kingdom; ZAMBART Project, University of Zambia School of Medicine, Lusaka, Zambia
Abstract.
High-quality laboratory space to support basic science, clinical research projects, or health services is often severely lacking in the developing world. Moreover, the construction of suitable facilities using traditional methods is time-consuming, expensive, and challenging to implement. Three real world examples showing how shipping containers can be converted into modern laboratories are highlighted. These include use as an insectary, a molecular laboratory, and a BSL-3 containment laboratory. These modular conversions have a number of advantages over brick and mortar construction and provide a cost-effective and timely solution to offer high-quality, user-friendly laboratory space applicable within the developing world.

Evaluation of Targeted Mass Cholera Vaccination Strategies in Bangladesh: A Demonstration of a New Cost-Effectiveness Calculator
Christopher Troeger, David A. Sack and Dennis L. Chao*
Author Affiliations
Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases, Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington; Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland
Abstract
Growing interest in mass vaccination with oral cholera vaccine in endemic and epidemic settings will require policymakers to evaluate how to allocate these vaccines in the most efficient manner. Because cholera, when treated properly, has a low case fatality rate, it may not be economically feasible to vaccinate an entire population. Using a new publicly available calculator for estimating the cost-effectiveness of mass vaccination, we show how targeting high-risk subpopulations for vaccination could be cost-effective in Bangladesh. The approach described here is general enough to adapt to different settings or to other vaccine-preventable diseases.

Economic and Disease Burden of Dengue Illness in India
Donald S. Shepard, Yara A. Halasa, Brij Kishore Tyagi, S. Vivek Adhish, Deoki Nandan, K. S. Karthiga, Vidya Chellaswamy, Mukul Gaba, Narendra K. Arora*, the INCLEN Study Group
Author Affiliations
Brandeis University, Waltham, Massachusetts; Centre for Research in Medical Entomology, Madurai, India; National Institute of Health and Family Welfare, New Delhi, India; INCLEN Trust International, New Delhi, India
Abstract
Between 2006 and 2012 India reported an annual average of 20,474 dengue cases. Although dengue has been notifiable since 1996, regional comparisons suggest that reported numbers substantially underrepresent the full impact of the disease. Adjustment for underreporting from a case study in Madurai district and an expert Delphi panel yielded an annual average of 5,778,406 clinically diagnosed dengue cases between 2006 and 2012, or 282 times the reported number per year. The total direct annual medical cost was US$548 million. Ambulatory settings treated 67% of cases representing 18% of costs, whereas 33% of cases were hospitalized, comprising 82% of costs. Eighty percent of expenditures went to private facilities. Including non-medical and indirect costs based on other dengue-endemic countries raises the economic cost to $1.11 billion, or $0.88 per capita. The economic and disease burden of dengue in India is substantially more than captured by officially reported cases, and increased control measures merit serious consideration.

Annals of Internal Medicine – 2 December 2014

Annals of Internal Medicine
2 December 2014, Vol. 161. No. 11
http://annals.org/issue.aspx

Ideas and Opinions
Chikungunya: Establishing a New Home in the Western Hemisphere FREE
Davidson H. Hamer, MD; and Lin H. Chen, MD

Safe Management of Patients With Serious Communicable Diseases: Recent Experience With Ebola Virus FREE
Alexander Isakov, MD, MPH; Aaron Jamison, EMT-P; Wade Miles, EMT-P; and Bruce Ribner, MD, MPH

Preparing for Critical Care Services to Patients With Ebola FREE
Brooke K. Decker, MD; Jonathan E. Sevransky, MD, MHS; Kevin Barrett, RN; Richard T. Davey, MD; and Daniel S. Chertow, MD, MPH

BMC Infectious Diseases (Accessed 6 December 2014)

BMC Infectious Diseases
(Accessed 6 December 2014)
http://www.biomedcentral.com/bmcinfectdis/content

Research article
Persistent low carriage of serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis two years after mass vaccination with the meningococcal conjugate vaccine, MenAfriVac
Paul A Kristiansen1*, Absatou Ky Ba2, Abdoul-Salam Ouédraogo3, Idrissa Sanou34, Rasmata Ouédraogo5, Lassana Sangaré4, Fabien Diomandé67, Denis Kandolo6, Inger Marie Saga1, Lara Misegades7, Thomas A Clark7, Marie-Pierre Préziosi89 and Dominique A Caugant110
Author Affiliations
BMC Infectious Diseases 2014, 14:663 doi:10.1186/s12879-014-0663-4
Published: 4 December 2014
Abstract (provisional)
Background
The conjugate vaccine against serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis (NmA), MenAfriVac, is currently being introduced throughout the African meningitis belt. In repeated multicentre cross-sectional studies in Burkina Faso we demonstrated a significant effect of vaccination on NmA carriage for one year following mass vaccination in 2010. A new multicentre carriage study was performed in October-November 2012, two years after MenAfriVac mass vaccination.
Methods
Oropharyngeal samples were collected and analysed for presence of N. meningitidis (Nm) from a representative selection of 1-29-year-olds in three districts in Burkina Faso using the same procedures as in previous years. Characterization of Nm isolates included serogrouping, multilocus sequence typing, and porA and fetA sequencing. A small sample of invasive isolates collected during the epidemic season of 2012 through the national surveillance system were also analysed.
Results
From a total of 4964 oropharyngeal samples, overall meningococcal carriage prevalence was 7.86%. NmA prevalence was 0.02% (1 carrier), significantly lower (OR, 0.05, 95% CI, P?=?0.005, 0.006-0.403) than pre-vaccination prevalence (0.39%). The single NmA isolate was sequence type (ST)-7, P1.20,9;F3-1, a clone last identified in Burkina Faso in 2003. Nm serogroup W (NmW) dominated with a carriage prevalence of 6.85%, representing 87.2% of the isolates. Of 161 NmW isolates characterized by molecular techniques, 94% belonged to the ST-11 clonal complex and 6% to the ST-175 complex. Nm serogroup X (NmX) was carried by 0.60% of the participants and ST-181 accounted for 97% of the NmX isolates. Carriage prevalence of serogroup Y and non-groupable Nm was 0.20% and 0.18%, respectively. Among the 20 isolates recovered from meningitis cases, NmW dominated (70%), followed by NmX (25%). ST-2859, the only ST with a serogroup A capsule found in Burkina Faso since 2004, was not found with another capsule, neither among carriage nor invasive isolates.
Conclusions
The significant reduction of NmA carriage still persisted two years following MenAfriVac vaccination, and no cases of NmA meningitis were recorded. High carriage prevalence of NmW ST-11 was consistent with the many cases of NmW meningitis in the epidemic season of 2012 and the high proportion of NmW ST-11 among the characterized invasive isolates.

Research article
Identifying an appropriate PCV for use in Senegal, recent insights concerning Streptococcus pneumoniae NP carriage and IPD in Dakar
Fatim Ba1, Abdoulaye Seck1, Mamadou Bâ2, Aliou Thiongane2, Moussa Fafa Cissé2, Khady Seck3, Madeleine Ndour4, Pascal Boisier5 and Benoit Garin16*
Author Affiliations
BMC Infectious Diseases 2014, 14:627 doi:10.1186/s12879-014-0627-8
Published: 4 December 2014
Abstract (provisional)
Background
Since 2000, the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI) and WHO have supported the introduction of the Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine (PCV) in the immunization programs of developing countries. The highest pneumococcal nasopharyngeal carriage rates have been reported (40-60%) in these countries, and the highest incidence and case fatality rates of pneumococcal infections have been demonstrated in Africa.
Methods
Studies concerning nasopharyngeal pneumococcal carriage and pneumococcal infection in children less than 5?years old were conducted in Dakar from 2007 to 2008. Serotype, antibiotic susceptibility and minimum inhibitory concentrations were determined. In addition, among 17 overall publications, 6 manuscripts of the Senegalese literature published from 1972 to 2013 were selected for data comparisons.
Results
Among the 264 children observed, 132 (50%) children generated a nasopharyngeal (NP) positive culture with Streptococcus pneumoniae. The five most prevalent serotypes, were 6B (9%), 19?F (9%), 23?F (7.6%), 14 (7.6%) and 6A (6.8%). Fifteen percent of the strains (20/132) showed reduced susceptibility to penicillin and 3% (4/132) showed reduced susceptibility to anti-pneumococcal fluoroquinolones. Among the 196 suspected pneumococcal infections, 62 (31.6%) Streptococcus pneumoniae were isolated. Serogroup 1 was the most prevalent serotype (21.3%), followed by 6B (14.9%), 23?F (14.9%) and 5 (8.5%). Vaccine coverage for PCV-7, PCV-10 and PCV-13, were 36.2% (17/47), 66% (31/47) and 70.2% (33/47) respectively. Reduced susceptibility to penicillin and anti-pneumococcal fluoroquinolones was 6.4% and 4.3%, respectively, and the overall lethality was 42.4% (14/33).
Conclusions
This study confirms a high rate of carriage and disease caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae serotypes contained within the current generation of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines and consistent with reports from other countries in sub-Saharan Africa prior to PCV introduction. Antimicrobial resistance in this small unselected sample confirms a low rate of antibiotic resistance. Case-fatality is high. Introduction of a high valency pneumococcal vaccine should be a priority for health planners with the establishment of an effective surveillance system to monitor post vaccine changes.

Sexual behavior and factors associated with young age at first intercourse and HPV vaccine uptake among young women in Germany: implications for HPV vaccination policie

BMC Public Health
(Accessed 6 December 2014)
http://www.biomedcentral.com/bmcpublichealth/content

Research article
Sexual behavior and factors associated with young age at first intercourse and HPV vaccine uptake among young women in Germany: implications for HPV vaccination policies
Cornelius Remschmidt, Michaela Fesenfeld, Andreas M Kaufmann and Yvonne Deleré
Author Affiliations
BMC Public Health 2014, 14:1248 doi:10.1186/1471-2458-14-1248
Published: 5 December 2014
Abstract (provisional)
Background
In Germany, immunization against human papillomaviruses (HPV) is free of charge for all females aged 12 to 17 years. Since HPV infection rates rise soon after first intercourse, immunization against HPV should be completed before sexual debut. Knowledge of country-specific data on age at first intercourse and related risk factors is important to optimize prevention of HPV and other sexually transmitted infections. Therefore, the primary aim of this study was to describe sexual behavior in young women in Germany. Secondary aims were to identify factors that are (i) associated with younger age at first intercourse and (ii) with HPV vaccine uptake.
Methods
Between 2010 and 2012, we conducted a cross-sectional study among randomly selected women aged 20 to 25 years in Germany. We used a structured, self-administered questionnaire to collect sociodemographic data, information on sexual habits such as age at first intercourse, and information on HPV vaccine uptake. We used univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses to identify factors associated with younger age at first intercourse and with HPV vaccine uptake.
Results
A total of 823 women (response rate: 14.2%) participated, 785 (95.4%) of which reported having had intercourse already. 70% of these women experienced first intercourse before the age of 18 years. However, less than 5% were younger than 14 years at sexual debut. Younger age at first intercourse was independently associated with a higher number of sexual partners, smoking, and past pregnancies.
Conclusion
In Germany, only a small proportion of women experienced first intercourse before the age of 14 years. Younger age at first intercourse was associated with behavior that might increase the risk of getting infected with HPV or other sexually transmitted infections. To optimize HPV vaccination strategies in Germany and to cover a large proportion of women before their sexual debut and particularly those who are at increased risk for HPV infections, HPV vaccination series should be completed before the age of 14 years in Germany.

Bulletin of the World Health Organization – December 2014

Bulletin of the World Health Organization
Volume 92, Number 12, December 2014, 849-924
http://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/92/12/en/

Health-system resilience: reflections on the Ebola crisis in western Africa
Marie-Paule Kieny a, David B Evans a, Gerard Schmets a & Sowmya Kadandale a
a. World Health Organization, avenue Appia 20, 1211 Geneva 27, Switzerland.
Bulletin of the World Health Organization 2014;92:850. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.2471/BLT.14.149278
Disease outbreaks and catastrophes can affect countries at any time, causing substantial human suffering and deaths and economic losses. If health systems are ill-equipped to deal with such situations, the affected populations can be very vulnerable.1

The current Ebola virus disease outbreak in western Africa highlights how an epidemic can proliferate rapidly and pose huge problems in the absence of a strong health system capable of a rapid and integrated response. The outbreak began in Guinea in December 2013 but soon spread into neighbouring Liberia and Sierra Leone.2 In early August 2014, Ebola was declared an international public health emergency.2

At the time the outbreak began, the capacity of the health systems in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone was limited. Several health-system functions that are generally considered essential were not performing well and this hampered the development of a suitable and timely response to the outbreak. There were inadequate numbers of qualified health workers.3 Infrastructure, logistics, health information, surveillance, governance and drug supply systems were weak. The organization and management of health services was sub-optimal. Government health expenditure was low whereas private expenditure – mostly in the form of direct out-of-pocket payments for health services – was relatively high.4

The last decade has seen increased external health-related aid to Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. However, in the context of Millennium Development Goals 4, 5 and 6, most of this aid has been allocated to combat human immunodeficiency virus infection, malaria and tuberculosis, with much of the residual going to maternal and child health services. Therefore, relatively little external aid was left to support overall development of health systems.5 This lack of balanced investment in the health systems contributes to the challenges of controlling the current Ebola outbreak. Weak health systems cannot be resilient.6–8 A strong health system decreases a country’s vulnerability to health risks and ensures a high level of preparedness to mitigate the impact of any crises.

Frequently, the response by governments and external partners to a health crisis posed by a communicable disease, such as Ebola, is to focus solely on reducing transmission and the effect of the disease. However, such a response is insufficient. Febrile individuals need to be screened for Ebola – even if most of them have fevers caused by other infections – and those found to be negative for Ebola still need to be treated rather than simply turned away. Even in the worst-affected areas, women still need antenatal services, safe delivery and postnatal care. Many people will travel to seek care for unrelated conditions in areas that they perceive to be Ebola-free, putting enormous strain on the health system in so-called “non-Ebola” areas. Routine services need to be assured while dealing with the direct effects of an epidemic. Otherwise, more people may die – of unrelated causes – from a general breakdown of health services than as a direct result of the epidemic.

If this Ebola outbreak does not trigger substantial investments in health systems and adequate reforms in the worst-affected countries, pre-existing deficiencies in health systems will be exacerbated. The national governments, assisted by external partners, need to develop and implement strategies to make their health systems stronger and more resilient. Only then can they meet the essential health needs of their populations and develop strong disaster preparedness to address future emergencies. In the short-term, nongovernmental organizations, civil society and international organizations will have to bolster the national health systems, both to mitigate the direct consequences of the outbreak and to ensure that all essential health services are being delivered. However, this assistance should be carefully coordinated under the leadership of the national governments and follow development effectiveness principles. We expect health systems in the worst-affected areas to be left in a very weak state once the outbreak has ended. Hopefully, after the epidemic has ended, economic growth and government health spending will eventually rebound, with increased domestic investments in health systems. For the foreseeable future however, the negative economic impact on the affected countries9 means that substantial external financing will be needed to build stronger national and subnational health systems.
References

Systematic Review
Effectiveness of travel restrictions in the rapid containment of human influenza: a systematic review
Ana LP Mateus, Harmony E Otete, Charles R Beck, Gayle P Dolan & Jonathan S Nguyen-Van-Tam
Abstract
Objective
To assess the effectiveness of internal and international travel restrictions in the rapid containment of influenza.
Methods
We conducted a systematic review according to the requirements of the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement. Health-care databases and grey literature were searched and screened for records published before May 2014. Data extraction and assessments of risk of bias were undertaken by two researchers independently. Results were synthesized in a narrative form.
Findings
The overall risk of bias in the 23 included studies was low to moderate. Internal travel restrictions and international border restrictions delayed the spread of influenza epidemics by one week and two months, respectively. International travel restrictions delayed the spread and peak of epidemics by periods varying between a few days and four months. Travel restrictions reduced the incidence of new cases by less than 3%. Impact was reduced when restrictions were implemented more than six weeks after the notification of epidemics or when the level of transmissibility was high. Travel restrictions would have minimal impact in urban centres with dense populations and travel networks. We found no evidence that travel restrictions would contain influenza within a defined geographical area.
Conclusion
Extensive travel restrictions may delay the dissemination of influenza but cannot prevent it. The evidence does not support travel restrictions as an isolated intervention for the rapid containment of influenza. Travel restrictions would make an extremely limited contribution to any policy for rapid containment of influenza at source during the first emergence of a pandemic virus.

Post-licensure deployment of oral cholera vaccines: a systematic review
Stephen Martin, Anna Lena Lopez, Anna Bellos, Jacqueline Deen, Mohammad Ali, Kathryn Alberti, Dang Duc Anh, Alejandro Costa, Rebecca F Grais, Dominique Legros, Francisco J Luquero, Megan B Ghai, William Perea & David A Sack
Abstract
Objective
To describe and analyse the characteristics of oral cholera vaccination campaigns; including location, target population, logistics, vaccine coverage and delivery costs.
Methods
We searched PubMed, the World Health Organization (WHO) website and the Cochrane database with no date or language restrictions. We contacted public health personnel, experts in the field and in ministries of health and did targeted web searches.
Findings
A total of 33 documents were included in the analysis. One country, Viet Nam, incorporates oral cholera vaccination into its public health programme and has administered approximately 10.9 million vaccine doses between 1997 and 2012. In addition, over 3 million doses of the two WHO pre-qualified oral cholera vaccines have been administered in more than 16 campaigns around the world between 1997 and 2014. These campaigns have either been pre-emptive or reactive and have taken place under diverse conditions, such as in refugee camps or natural disasters. Estimated two-dose coverage ranged from 46 to 88% of the target population. Approximate delivery cost per fully immunized person ranged from 0.11–3.99 United States dollars.
Conclusion
Experience with oral cholera vaccination campaigns continues to increase. Public health officials may draw on this experience and conduct oral cholera vaccination campaigns more frequently.

PERSPECTIVES
Defining disrespect and abuse of women in childbirth: a research, policy and rights agenda
Lynn P Freedman, Kate Ramsey, Timothy Abuya, Ben Bellows, Charity Ndwiga, Charlotte E Warren, Stephanie Kujawski, Wema Moyo, Margaret E Kruk & Godfrey Mbaruku
doi: 10.2471/BLT.14.137869

Dilemmas of evaluation: health research capacity initiatives
Donald C Cole, Garry Aslanyan, Alison Dunn, Alan Boyd & Imelda Bates
doi: 10.2471/BLT.14.141259

Conflict and Health [Accessed 6 December 2014]

Conflict and Health
[Accessed 6 December 2014]
http://www.conflictandhealth.com/

Case study
Community health workers of Afghanistan: a qualitative study of a national program
Najafizada SA, Labonté R and Bourgeault IL Conflict and Health 2014, 8:26 (1 December 2014)

Case study
Treating drug-resistant tuberculosis in a low-intensity chronic conflict setting in India
Armstrong E, Das M, Mansoor H, Babu RB and Isaakidis P Conflict and Health 2014, 8:25 (1 December 2014)

Eurosurveillance Volume – 04 December 2014

Eurosurveillance
Volume 19, Issue 48, 04 December 2014
http://www.eurosurveillance.org/Public/Articles/Archives.aspx?PublicationId=11678

Research articles
Preparedness for admission of patients with suspected Ebola virus disease in European hospitals: a survey, August-September 2014
by MD de Jong, C Reusken, P Horby, M Koopmans, M Bonten, JD Chiche, C Giaquinto, T Welte, F Leus, J Schotsman, H Goossens, on behalf of the PREPARE consortium and affiliated clinical networks.
[No abstract]

Perspectives
Overcoming healthcare workers’ vaccine refusal – competition between egoism and altruism
C Betsch
University of Erfurt, Erfurt, Germany
Vaccination reduces the risk of becoming infected with and transmitting pathogens. The role of healthcare workers (HCWs) in controlling and limiting nosocomial infections has been stressed repeatedly. This has also been recognised at a political level, leading the European Council of Ministers in 2009 to encourage coverage of 75% seasonal influenza vaccine in HCWs. Although there are policies, recommendations and well-tolerated vaccines, still many HCWs refuse to get vaccinated. This article uses literature from psychology and behavioural economics to understand vaccination decisions and the specific situation of HCWs. HCWs are expected to be highly motivated to protect others. However, their individual vaccination decisions follow the same principles (of weighting individual risks) as everyone else’s vaccination decisions. This will lead to decisional conflict in a typical social dilemma situation, in which individual interests are at odds with collective interests. Failure to get vaccinated may be the result. If we understand the motivations and mechanisms of HCWs’ vaccine refusal, interventions and campaigns may be designed more effectively. Strategies to increase HCWs’ vaccine uptake should be directed towards correcting skewed risk perceptions and activating pro-social motivation in HCWs.

Global Health Governance [Accessed 6 December 2014]

Global Health Governance
[Accessed 6 December 2014]
http://blogs.shu.edu/ghg/category/complete-issues/summer-2013/

Determinants of Global Collective Action in Health: The Case of the UN Summit on Non-communicable Diseases
November 30, 2014
Chantal Blouin, Laurette Dube, Ebony Bertorelli and Monique Moreau
This article presents a case study of the policy process leading to the UN High-Level Meeting on non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The case study tests an analytical framework to understand the factors influencing successful global collective to address chronic diseases. Using this framework, we highlighted four factors explaining the weak outcome of this process. We observed a relatively weak mobilization and advocacy of civil society at the national and global level. Second, the financial context of that time, especially in industrial countries, has created the conditions where it is politically and fiscally difficult for donor countries to undertake financial commitments to support global actions. Thirdly, we observe that health actors have done an incorrect assessment as to where the policy process. Finally, we observed a certain lack of clarity on the rationale for global collective action; the key obstacle here is the economic case has not been sufficiently and visibly made to motivate and trigger policy change. After the Summit in the fall of 2011, the global health diplomacy around chronic diseases control and prevention continued. Future research should examine if the proposed analytical framework is a useful tool to analyze these further steps and to prepare for health diplomacy.

Plants, Patents and Biopiracy: The Globalization of Intellectual Property Rights and Traditional Medicine
– November 30, 2014
Suchita Shah
A controversial international debate has arisen between those who call for stronger intellectual property legislation to protect their scientific innovation, and those who claim ‘biopiracy’ of their traditional medical knowledge (TMK) under such legislation. This paper firstly presents and contextualises the debate, then argues that the difficulty in its resolution has been fuelled by three main factors: first, the lack of an integrated and comprehensive international rights-based system for TMK, which is mirrored in domestic legislation; second, attempts to redress perceived iniquities present legal, political and logistical problems to developing countries; third, when faced with these constraints, developing countries themselves may not act in the best interests of their TMK holders. The case of India, based on original fieldwork, illustrates these issues. Due to the complex nature of TMK and diverse positions on its protection, a broad international sui generis system of rights for TMK holders seems a distant prospect in reality. With a view to advancing the debate, this paper highlights local, national, regional and global initiatives to protect TMK holders, examining in particular the potential of four key processes – forum-shifting, linkages to public health, use of transnational networks and normative change in order to achieve incremental gains.

Financial impact of the GFC: health care spending across the OECD

Health Economics, Policy and Law
Volume 10 – Special Issue 01 January 2015
http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayIssue?jid=HEP&tab=currentissue
SPECIAL ISSUE: Global Financial Crisis, Health and Health Care

Overview
Financial impact of the GFC: health care spending across the OECD
David Morgana1 c1 and Roberto Astolfia2
a1 OECD Health Division, OECD, Paris, France
a2 Statistician/Economist, OECD, Paris, France
Abstract
Since the onset of the global financial crisis (GFC), health spending has slowed markedly or fallen in many OECD countries after years of continuous growth. However, health spending patterns across the 34 countries of the OECD have been affected to varying degrees. This article examines in more detail the observed downturn in health expenditure growth, analysing which countries and which sectors of health spending have been most affected. In addition, using more recent preliminary data for a subset of countries, this article tries to shed light on the prospects for health spending trends. Given that public sources account for around three-quarters of total spending on health on average across the OECD, and, in an overall context of managing public deficits, the article focuses on the specific areas of public spending that have been most affected. This study also tries to link the observed trends with some of the main policy measures and instruments put in place by countries. The investigation finds that while nearly all OECD countries have seen health spending growth decrease since 2009, there is wide variation as to the extent of the slowdown, with some countries outside of Europe continuing to see significant growth in health spending. While all sectors of spending appear to have been affected, initial analysis appears to show the greatest decreases has been experienced in pharmaceutical spending and in areas of public health and prevention.

Health Policy and Planning Volume – December 2014

Health Policy and Planning
Volume 29 Issue 8 December 2014
http://heapol.oxfordjournals.org/content/current

The emergence, growth and decline of political priority for newborn survival in Bolivia
Stephanie L Smith*
Author Affiliations
School of Public Administration, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM 87131-0001, USA
Accepted September 16, 2013.
Abstract
Bolivia is expected to achieve United Nations Millennium Development Goal Four, reducing under-five child mortality by two-thirds between 2021 and 2025. However, progress on child mortality reduction masks a disproportionately slow decline in newborn deaths during the 2000s. Bolivia’s neonatal mortality problem emerged on the policy agenda in the mid-1990s and grew through 2004 in relationship to political commitments to international development goals and the support of a strong policy network. Network status declined later in the decade. This study draws upon a framework for analysing determinants of political priority for global health initiatives to understand the trajectory of newborn survival policy in Bolivia from the early 1990s. A process-tracing case study methodology is used, informed by interviews with 26 individuals with close knowledge of newborn survival policy in the country and extensive document analysis. The case of newborn survival in Bolivia highlights the significance of political commitments to international development goals, health policy network characteristics (cohesion, composition, status and key actor support) and political transitions and instability in shaping agenda status, especially decline—an understudied phenomenon considering the transitory nature of policy priorities. The study suggests that the sustainability of issue attention therefore become a focal point for health policy networks and analyses.

Global Fund investments in human resources for health: innovation and missed opportunities for health systems strengthening
Diana Bowser1, Susan Powers Sparkes1, Andrew Mitchell1,2, Thomas J. Bossert1, Till Bärnighausen1, Gulin Gedik3 and Rifat Atun1,4,*
Author Affiliations
1Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, USA, 2Office of the U.S. Global AIDS Coordinator, Washington, DC, 20520, 3World Health Organization, 1211 Geneva 27, Switzerland and 4Imperial College Business School and Faculty of Medicine, London, SW7 2AZ, UK
Accepted September 16, 2013.
Abstract
Background
Since the early 2000s, there have been large increases in donor financing of human resources for health (HRH), yet few studies have examined their effects on health systems.
Objective To determine the scope and impact of investments in HRH by the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (Global Fund), the largest investor in HRH outside national governments.
Methods
We used mixed research methodology to analyse budget allocations and expenditures for HRH, including training, for 138 countries receiving money from the Global Fund during funding rounds 1–7. From these aggregate figures, we then identified 27 countries with the largest funding for human resources and training and examined all HRH-related performance indicators tracked in Global Fund grant reports. We used the results of these quantitative analyses to select six countries with substantial funding and varied characteristics—representing different regions and income levels for further in-depth study: Bangladesh (South and West Asia, low income), Ethiopia (Eastern Africa, low income), Honduras (Latin America, lower-middle income), Indonesia (South and West Asia, lower-middle income), Malawi (Southern Africa, low income) and Ukraine (Eastern Europe and Central Asia, upper-middle income). We used qualitative methods to gather information in each of the six countries through 159 interviews with key informants from 83 organizations. Using comparative case-study analysis, we examined Global Fund’s interactions with other donors, as well as its HRH support and co-ordination within national health systems.
Results
Around US$1.4 billion (23% of total US$5.1 billion) of grant funding was allocated to HRH by the 138 Global Fund recipient countries. In funding rounds 1–7, the six countries we studied in detail were awarded a total of 47 grants amounting to US$1.2 billion and HRH budgets of US$276 million, of which approximately half were invested in disease-focused in-service and short-term training activities. Countries employed a variety of mechanisms including salary top-ups, performance incentives, extra compensation and contracting of workers for part-time work, to pay health workers using Global Fund financing. Global Fund support for training and salary support was not co-ordinated with national strategic plans and there were major deficiencies in the data collected by the Global Fund to track HRH financing and to provide meaningful assessments of health system performance.
Conclusion
The narrow disease focus and lack of co-ordination with national governments call into question the efficiency of funding and sustainability of Global Fund investments in HRH and their effectiveness in strengthening recipient countries’ health systems. The lessons that emerge from this analysis can be used by both the Global Fund and other donors to improve co-ordination of investments and the effectiveness of programmes in recipient countries.

Aid for health in times of political unrest in Mali: does donors’ way of intervening allow protecting people’s health?
Elisabeth Paul1,*, Salif Samaké2, Issa Berthé2, Ini Huijts3, Hubert Balique4 and Bruno Dujardin5
Author Affiliations
1Université de Liège, Changement Social et Développement, and Research Group on the Implementation of the Agenda for Aid Effectiveness in the Health Sector (GRAP-PA Santé), Boulevard du Rectorat 7, Bât B31, bte 8, 4000 Liège, Belgium, 2Planning and Statistics Unit, Ministry of Health, BP232, Koulouba, Bamako, Mali, 3International Heath Expert, Bamako, Mali, 4Laboratoire de Santé Publique, Faculté de Médecine de Marseille 27, Bd Jean Moulin, 13385 Marseille CEDEX 05, France and 5Ecole de Santé Publique, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Campus Erasme, CP596, Route de Lennik 808, 1070 Bruxelles, Belgium
Accepted September 27, 2013.
Abstract
Mali has long been a leader in francophone Africa in developing systems aimed at improving aid effectiveness, especially in the health sector. But following the invasion of the Northern regions of the country by terrorist groups and a coup in March 2012, donors suspended official development assistance, except for support to NGOs and humanitarian assistance. They resumed aid after transfer of power to a civil government, but this was not done in a harmonized framework. This article describes and analyses how donors in the health sector reacted to the political unrest in Mali. It shows that despite its long sector-wide approach experience and international agreements to respect aid effectiveness principles, donors have not been able to intervene in view of safeguarding the investments of co-operation in the past decade, and of protecting the health system’s functioning. They reacted to the political unrest on a bilateral basis, stopped working with their ministerial partners, interrupted support to the health system which was still expected to serve populations’ needs and took months before organizing alternative and only partial solutions to resume aid to the health sector. The Malian example leads to a worrying conclusion: while protecting the health system’s achievements and functioning for the population should be a priority, and while harmonizing donors’ interventions seems the most appropriate way for that purpose, donors’ management practices do not allow for reacting adequately in times of unrest. The article concludes by a number of recommendations.

International Health – December 2014

International Health
Volume 6 Issue 4 December 2014
http://inthealth.oxfordjournals.org/content/6/3.toc

Addressing the global health burden of sickle cell disease
Peter J. Carey*
Author Affiliations
Royal Victoria Infirmary, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE1 4LP, UK
Received April 1, 2014.
Revision received June 13, 2014.
Accepted June 16, 2014.
Abstract
A review of the clinical manifestations of sickle cell disease (SCD), available therapeutic interventions and a necessarily limited assessment of progress with their implementation in Nigeria (the country with the largest number of affected individuals worldwide) was recently published in this journal. Despite a disappointing dearth of targeted therapy for a condition whose molecular basis has been well understood for half a century, there is a wealth of evidence-based supportive interventions, including antibiotic and vaccination prophylaxis against early bacteraemic mortality, childhood stroke risk prevention, patient and population education and screening and community care provision that are simple and inexpensive to implement. There is a real opportunity for international collaboration to drive an improvement in healthcare provision for this condition.

Time is (still) of the essence: quantifying the impact of emergency meningitis vaccination response in Katsina State, Nigeria
Matthew J. Ferraria, Florence Fermonb, Fabienne Nackersc, Augusto Llosac, Claire Magonec and
Rebecca F. Graisc,*
Author Affiliations
aCenter for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Department of Biology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802 USA
bEpicentre, Paris, France
cMédecins Sans Frontières, Paris, France
Received March 19, 2014.
Revision received July 28, 2014.
Accepted July 29, 2014.
Abstract
Background
In 2009, a large meningitis A epidemic affected a broad region of northern Nigeria and southern Niger, resulting in more than 75 000 cases and 4000 deaths. In collaboration with state and federal agencies, Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) intervened with a large-scale vaccination campaign using polysaccharide vaccine. Here the authors analyze the impact (cases averted) of the vaccination response as a function of the timing and coverage achieved.
Methods
Phenomenological epidemic models were fitted to replicate meningitis surveillance data from the Nigerian Ministry of Health/WHO surveillance system and from reinforced surveillance conducted by MSF in both vaccinated and unvaccinated areas using a dynamic, state–space framework to account for under-reporting of cases.
Results
The overall impact of the vaccination campaigns (reduction in meningitis cases) in Katsina State, northern Nigeria, ranged from 4% to 12%. At the local level, vaccination reduced cases by as much as 50% when campaigns were conducted early in the epidemic.
Conclusions
Reactive vaccination with polysaccharide vaccine during meningitis outbreaks can significantly reduce the case burden when conducted early and comprehensively. Introduction of the conjugate MenAfriVac vaccine has reduced rates of disease caused by serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis in the region. Despite this, reactive campaigns with polysaccharide vaccine remain a necessary and important tool for meningitis outbreak response.

Perceptions of foreign health aid in East Africa: an exploratory baseline study
Shannon L. Lövgrena,1, Trisa B. Tarob and Heather L. Wipflib,*
Author Affiliations
aDivision of Global Health/IHCAR, Department of Public Health Science, Karolinska Institutet, Widerströmsa Huset, Tomtebodavägen 18A, 171 76 Stockholm, Sweden
bUSC Institute of Global Health, University of Southern California, Suite #318K, Los Angeles, CA 90032, USA
Received December 13, 2013.
Revision received March 6, 2014.
Accepted March 12, 2014.
Abstract
Background
There is insufficient literature on the perceptions of aid recipients with respect to foreign health aid administration and impact. This study sought to identify perceptions of foreign health aid among individuals, health care workers (HCWs), and policymakers in three East African countries: Kenya, Uganda, and Ethiopia. Each country receives substantial foreign aid and shares regional proximity.
Methods
A qualitative exploratory study design was adopted and 81 questionnaires were administered to individuals, HCWs and policymakers. Questionnaires ascertained perceptions of foreign aid, health aid and the USA. Responses were compared between groups and across countries.
Results
Perceptions of how much foreign aid a community receives varied between individuals (‘a little’), HCWs (‘some’) and policymakers (‘a lot’). Respondents were positive towards the USA irrespective of the level of aid they perceived came from the USA. Opinions regarding the impact of aid varied by country and by profession. Aid priorities were similar among all countries and participants, with health care, education and economic development among the primary sectors reported.
Conclusions
More research is needed on perceptions of aid recipients. The findings of this pilot study highlight the need for inclusion of these stakeholders in order to better inform decisions regarding foreign aid.

Ebola Virus Disease and Children – What Pediatric Health Care Professionals Need to Know

JAMA Pediatrics
December 2014, Vol 168, No. 12
http://archpedi.jamanetwork.com/issue.aspx

Viewpoint | December 2014
Ebola Virus Disease and Children – What Pediatric Health Care Professionals Need to Know FREE
Georgina Peacock, MD, MPH1; Timothy M. Uyeki, MD, MPH, MPP1; Sonja A. Rasmussen, MD, MS1
[+] Author Affiliations
JAMA Pediatr. 2014;168(12):1087-1088. doi:10.1001/jamapediatrics.2014.2835.

…WHAT IS KNOWN ABOUT EVD IN CHILDREN?
Transmission of Ebolavirus to Children
Because EVD outbreaks have typically occurred in low-resource settings, detailed information about pediatric cases has not been systematically collected. Based on available data, children and adolescents often comprise a small percentage of EVD cases. For example, in an outbreak in Zaire in 1995 in which more than half of the population was younger than 18 years, only 9% of the 315 EVD cases were younger than 18 years.5 Similarly, 147 of 823 (18%) reported EVD cases reported from the current outbreak in Guinea were children,6 and 13.8% of cases from 4 affected countries were younger than 15 years.4 Investigators have suggested that the low number of pediatric EVD cases may be owing to cultural practices in which children are kept away from sick family members, resulting in reduced ebolavirus transmission.4

Manifestations of EVD in Children
A unique challenge facing pediatricians is being able to distinguish EVD signs and symptoms from features of much more common pediatric infectious diseases. Typically, children may present with nonspecific signs and symptoms of EVD similar to those in adults, which initially include fever, headache, myalgia, abdominal pain, and weakness, followed several days later by vomiting, diarrhea, and, less commonly, unexplained bleeding or bruising. However, data are very limited. This highlights the key issue of eliciting a history of exposure to Zaire ebolavirus including a travel history and especially any recent direct contact with the blood or bodily fluids of a person who was sick or died from suspected or confirmed Zaire ebolavirus infection.

In the 2000-2001 Sudanebolavirus outbreak in Uganda, all children with laboratory-confirmed EVD were febrile, while only 16% had hemorrhage.7 Respiratory (eg, cough and dyspnea) and gastrointestinal symptoms were common among children, while central nervous system signs were rare.7

The overall case-fatality proportion in the current outbreak is estimated at 70.8%, including 73.4% in children younger than 15 years, 66.1% for those aged 15 to 44 years, and 80.4% for those older than 44 years.4 However, in the Sudanebolavirus outbreak in Uganda during 2000-2001, children younger than 5 years were reported to be at increased risk for illness and death.6 The authors hypothesized that this was owing to more prolonged contact with ill caregivers (in this outbreak, young uninfected children were often admitted to EVD treatment unit isolation wards with their ill parents because of the reluctance of other adults to care for them).7

Given the impact of this EVD outbreak on the health care infrastructure in the most severely affected countries, the health of children is likely to be seriously impacted because of challenges to providing routine care (eg, immunizations and hospitalizations for common illnesses) in affected countries.

Considerations for the Pediatric Health Care Professional
Pediatric health care professionals should have a high index of suspicion for EVD if the child has compatible signs and symptoms and a history of travel from an affected country within the past 21 days. It is essential that health care professionals take a detailed travel history. Malaria, measles, typhoid fever, and other infectious diseases are also endemic in West Africa and should be included in the differential diagnosis of a febrile pediatric traveler from West Africa. Information on high- and low-risk exposures and case definitions for the United States are available at http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/hcp/case-definition.html. If EVD is suspected, appropriate infection-control precautions (eg, standard, droplet, and contact) should be implemented immediately and the state health department should be promptly notified. The CDC developed an algorithm to evaluate travelers returning from areas with cases of EVD (http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/pdf/ebola-algorithm.pdf). Laboratory specimens should be processed according to CDC guidance (http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/pdf/ebola-lab-guidance.pdf).

CONCLUSIONS
Health care professionals, including those who care for children, should be familiar with the clinical features of EVD and should inquire about recent travel to affected West African countries when assessing patients with compatible illness. Prompt implementation of recommended infection-control measures and appropriate reporting to state health departments are essential to prevent further transmission. Based on previous outbreaks and limited data from the current epidemic to date, children may be at lower risk for EVD than adults. Therefore, health care professionals should also consider other common infectious diseases prevalent in West Africa when evaluating ill children from this region, while maintaining a high level of suspicion for EVD.

Journal of Medical Ethics – December 2014

Journal of Medical Ethics
December 2014, Volume 40, Issue 12
http://jme.bmj.com/content/current

Criminalising contagion
Catherine Stanton
Correspondence to Dr C Stanton, CSEP, School of Law, University of Manchester, Manchester M3 9PL, UK;
Accepted 29 October 2014
This special issue is the third in a series published by the BMJ Group.1 ,2 The papers published here arose from a call for papers linked to a project funded by the Economic and Social Research Council: ‘Criminalising Contagion: Legal and Ethical Challenges of Disease Transmission and the Criminal Law’, undertaken by David Gurnham, Hannah Quirk and myself. Since January 2013, we have held four seminars, which have brought together academics, healthcare professionals, representatives from charities, the Crown Prosecution Service, the Law Commission and the media. While the focus of these seminars was largely on the sexual transmission of disease (ie, HIV and herpes), the recent Ebola outbreak has highlighted the importance of addressing the broader questions as to whether, and if so when, the criminal law should be used in the context of disease transmission.3

Bioinformatics analysis and genetic diversity of the poliovirus

Journal of Medical Microbiology
December 2014; 63 (Pt 12)
http://jmm.sgmjournals.org/content/current

Bioinformatics analysis and genetic diversity of the poliovirus
Yanhan Liu, Tengfei Ma, Jianzhu Liu, Xiaona Zhao, Ziqiang Cheng, Huijun Guo, Shujing Wang and Ruixue Xu
Author Affiliations
College of Veterinary Medicine, Research Center for Animal Disease Control Engineering Shandong Province, Shandong Agricultural University, Tai’an 271018, PR China
Received 4 August 2014.
Accepted 19 September 2014.
Abstract
Poliomyelitis, a disease which can manifest as muscle paralysis, is caused by the poliovirus, which is a human enterovirus and member of the family Picornaviridae that usually transmits by the faecal–oral route. The viruses of the OPV (oral poliovirus attenuated-live vaccine) strains can mutate in the human intestine during replication and some of these mutations can lead to the recovery of serious neurovirulence. Informatics research of the poliovirus genome can be used to explain further the characteristics of this virus. In this study, sequences from 100 poliovirus isolates were acquired from GenBank. To determine the evolutionary relationship between the strains, we compared and analysed the sequences of the complete poliovirus genome and the VP1 region. The reconstructed phylogenetic trees for the complete sequences and the VP1 sequences were both divided into two branches, indicating that the genetic relationships of the whole poliovirus genome and the VP1 sequences are very similar. This branching indicates that the virulence and pathogenicity of poliomyelitis may be associated with the VP1 region. Sequence alignment of the VP1 region revealed numerous mutation sites in which mutation rates of >30 % were detected. In a group of strains recorded in the USA, mutation sites and mutation types were the same and this may be associated with their distribution in the evolutionary tree and their genetic relationship. In conclusion, the genetic evolutionary relationships of poliovirus isolate sequences are determined to a great extent by the VP1 protein, and poliovirus strains located on the same branch of the phylogenetic tree contain the same mutation spots and mutation types. Hence, the genetic characteristics of the VP1 region in the poliovirus genome should be analysed to identify the transmission route of poliovirus and provide the basis of viral immunity development.

The Lancet – Dec 06, 2014

The Lancet
Dec 06, 2014 Volume 384 Number 9959 p1999 – 2082 e62
http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/issue/current

Comment
Ebola virus disease: clinical care and patient-centred research
Ian Roberts, Anders Perner
Preview |
It is often stated that there are no proven therapies for Ebola virus disease but that potential treatments, including blood products, immune therapies, and antiviral drugs, are being evaluated.1 This view is inaccurate. Ebola virus disease is a febrile illness with severe gastrointestinal symptoms. Nausea, vomiting, and diarrhoea cause profound water and electrolyte depletion leading to circulatory collapse and death.2–4 Raised blood concentrations of urea and creatinine, indicators of severe dehydration and impaired renal function, are strongly correlated with mortality.

Comment
Chikungunya virus control: is a vaccine on the horizon?
Ann M Powers a
Vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue are among the most prevalent and important infectious diseases in the world. For example, WHO estimated that 40% of the world’s population is at risk of dengue virus infection and up to 100 million infections might occur annually.1 West Nile virus and Lyme disease are prominent examples of vector-borne diseases, with over 5600 and 31 000 human cases estimated, respectively, in 2012 in the USA alone.2, 3 Another arthropod-borne virus, chikungunya virus, which has caused over 2•5 million infections worldwide over the past decade, is spreading throughout the Americas and has recently been reported in the USA.4

Ideally, for both public health and economic reasons, options would be available for control of these infections before they cause large outbreaks. For chikungunya virus, on the island of La Reunion, about 300 000 cases were reported during the course of a 2005—06 outbreak, with an estimated economic cost of €43•9 million (in 2006 values).5, 6 The cost of a delayed response to introduction of a new arboviral disease could be as much as 346 times as high as the cost of preparedness through surveillance for the outbreak event.7 Additional preparedness efforts, including the availability of effective and safe vaccines, could further reduce the scope and harms of an eventual outbreak.

A chikungunya virus vaccine candidate was developed in the USA before the large outbreaks that started in 2004 in coastal Kenya. Phase 2 clinical trials were done on the live-attenuated vaccine candidate8 before further development was discontinued because of an absence of funding and questions regarding the eventual marketing of the vaccine.9 However, with the continued expansion of the chikungunya epidemic, Lee-Jah Chang and colleagues10 have reinvigorated chikungunya virus vaccine development with a report in The Lancet detailing the completion of a phase 1 clinical trial on the VRC virus-like particle (VLP) vaccine candidate, VRC-CHKVLP059-00-VP. This dose-escalation, open-label clinical trial included 25 participants and assessed the safety, tolerability, and immunogenicity of the candidate vaccine administered on weeks 0, 4, and 20 at ascending doses of 10 μg (n=5), 20 μg (n=10), and 40 μg (n=10). This VLP vaccine, which had previously been shown to protect non-human primates against virus infection,11 elicited antibody development in all participants.10 Importantly, neutralising antibodies persisted for at least 6 months in all participants in all dose groups, which suggests that the vaccine could provide long-term protection against the virus.

The development of a VLP vaccine is a new approach in vaccine technology—one that should result in a safer option than more traditional approaches such as killed vaccines or live-attenuated candidates. A VLP contains the outer structural proteins of the virus—the ones that would typically be recognised by the immune system. None of the viral genetic material is present, and so no live virus could ever be generated. The absence of any live virus also provides a manufacturing advantage because no high-containment facilities would be needed for production. In this study,10 no serious adverse events were reported and tenderness at the injection site was the only localised symptom (present in nine of 25 participants). Mild systemic reactions including headache, malaise, myalgia, and nausea were reported in ten participants. Overall, the safety data reported suggest that the vaccine would be well tolerated.

Additionally, the investigators noted increasing concentrations of antibodies after booster doses. All participants were antibody positive after the second dose, with the antibody concentrations reaching a peak 4 weeks after the third dose. Although multiple doses can be a challenge in developing countries, alternative formulations of the VLP might increase immunogenicity. For example, inclusion of an adjuvant could lead to equally high concentrations of antibody in fewer doses. Importantly, the concentrations of antibodies detected in participants at week 4—ie, after the initial dose—seemed to be similar to those in patients who had recovered from wild-type infections. Another important aspect of the study was the inclusion of several genotypes, or variants, in the antibody analysis. The VLP vaccine generated antibodies against these distinct variants, suggesting that the vaccine would be effective against any strain of the virus, including the type circulating in the Americas.

Although this VLP vaccine candidate exhibits a range of properties that suggest it would be a good vaccine option, there is always concern about whether a vaccine for a vector-borne virus will be licensed. Development of vaccines for orphan agents is challenging because the market might not be large enough to justify the investment. The cost of development of a vaccine—from preclinical studies to vaccine registration—is estimated to be US$200—500 million.12 Yet, even with this need for substantial funding, vaccines are still the most cost-effective strategy for disease prevention.13 Despite these limitations, there is optimism for vaccine development, with the findings that a vaccine for another vector-borne disease, dengue, could be made available at an affordable price,14 and policy makers in affected countries have expressed interest in public-sector use of a dengue vaccine.15 In view of the burden of chikungunya outbreaks, which have affected up to 63% of local populations in a matter of months,16 the continued development of this VLP vaccine candidate, along with other vaccine options, should be encouraged.

 

Safety and tolerability of chikungunya virus-like particle vaccine in healthy adults: a phase 1 dose-escalation trial
Lee-Jah Chang MD a †, Kimberly A Dowd PhD b †, Floreliz H Mendoza RN a, Jamie G Saunders BSN a, Sandra Sitar MSc a, Sarah H Plummer NP a, Galina Yamshchikov MSc a, Uzma N Sarwar MD a, Zonghui Hu PhD c, Mary E Enama PA-C a, Robert T Bailer PhD a, Richard A Koup MD a, Richard M Schwartz PhD a, Wataru Akahata PhD a, Gary J Nabel MD a, John R Mascola MD a, Theodore C Pierson PhD b, Barney S Graham MD a, Dr Julie E Ledgerwood DO a, the VRC 311 Study Team
Summary
Background
Chikungunya virus—a mosquito-borne alphavirus—is endemic in Africa and south and southeast Asia and has recently emerged in the Caribbean. No drugs or vaccines are available for treatment or prevention. We aimed to assess the safety, tolerability, and immunogenicity of a new candidate vaccine.
Methods
VRC 311 was a phase 1, dose-escalation, open-label clinical trial of a virus-like particle (VLP) chikungunya virus vaccine, VRC-CHKVLP059-00-VP, in healthy adults aged 18—50 years who were enrolled at the National Institutes of Health Clinical Center (Bethesda, MD, USA). Participants were assigned to sequential dose level groups to receive vaccinations at 10 μg, 20 μg, or 40 μg on weeks 0, 4, and 20, with follow-up for 44 weeks after enrolment. The primary endpoints were safety and tolerability of the vaccine. Secondary endpoints were chikungunya virus-specific immune responses assessed by ELISA and neutralising antibody assays. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01489358.
Findings
25 participants were enrolled from Dec 12, 2011, to March 22, 2012, into the three dosage groups: 10 μg (n=5), 20 μg (n=10), and 40 μg (n=10). The protocol was completed by all five participants at the 10 μg dose, all ten participants at the 20 μg dose, and eight of ten participants at the 40 μg dose; non-completions were for personal circumstances unrelated to adverse events. 73 vaccinations were administered. All injections were well tolerated, with no serious adverse events reported. Neutralising antibodies were detected in all dose groups after the second vaccination (geometric mean titres of the half maximum inhibitory concentration: 2688 in the 10 μg group, 1775 in the 20 μg group, and 7246 in the 40 μg group), and a significant boost occurred after the third vaccination in all dose groups (10 μg group p=0•0197, 20 μg group p<0•0001, and 40 μg group p<0•0001). 4 weeks after the third vaccination, the geometric mean titres of the half maximum inhibitory concentration were 8745 for the 10 μg group, 4525 for the 20 μg group, and 5390 for the 40 μg group.
Interpretation
The chikungunya VLP vaccine was immunogenic, safe, and well tolerated. This study represents an important step in vaccine development to combat this rapidly emerging pathogen. Further studies should be done in a larger number of participants and in more diverse populations.
Funding
Intramural Research Program of the Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and National Institutes of Health.
Seminar
Hepatitis B virus infection
Christian Trépo, Henry L Y Chan, Anna Lok
Preview |
Hepatitis B virus infection is a major public health problem worldwide; roughly 30% of the world’s population show serological evidence of current or past infection. Hepatitis B virus is a partly double-stranded DNA virus with several serological markers: HBsAg and anti-HBs, HBeAg and anti-HBe, and anti-HBc IgM and IgG. It is transmitted through contact with infected blood and semen. A safe and effective vaccine has been available since 1981, and, although variable, the implementation of universal vaccination in infants has resulted in a sharp decline in prevalence.
Hypothesis
The immune response and within-host emergence of pandemic influenza virus
Dr Leslie A Reperant PhD a b, Prof Thijs Kuiken PhD a, Prof Bryan T Grenfell PhD c d, Prof Albert D M E Osterhaus PhD a b
Summary
Zoonotic influenza viruses that are a few mutations away from pandemic viruses circulate in animals, and can evolve into airborne-transmissible viruses in human beings. Paradoxically, such viruses only occasionally emerge in people; the four influenza pandemics that occurred in the past 100 years were caused by zoonotic viruses that acquired efficient transmissibility. Emergence of a pandemic virus in people can happen when transmissible viruses evolve in individuals with zoonotic influenza and replicate to titres allowing transmission. We postulate that this step in the genesis of a pandemic virus only occasionally occurs in human beings, because the immune response triggered by zoonotic influenza virus also controls transmissible mutants that emerge during infection. Therefore, an impaired immune response might be needed for within-host emergence of a pandemic virus and replication to titres allowing transmission. Immunocompromised individuals—eg, those with comorbidities, of advanced age, or receiving immunosuppressive treatment—could be at increased risk of generating transmissible viruses and initiating chains of human-to-human infection.

The Lancet Global Health – December 2014

The Lancet Global Health
Dec 2014 Volume 2 Number 12 e672 – 736
http://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/issue/current

Comment
Prevention of neonatal pneumonia and sepsis via maternal immunisation
Amy Sarah Ginsburg, Ajoke Sobanjo-ter Meulen, Keith P Klugman
Preview |
Pneumonia is the leading killer of children younger than 5 years, and the greatest risk of mortality from pneumonia in childhood is in the neonatal period.1 Substantial reductions in childhood pneumonia deaths have been hindered by a lack of progress in addressing neonatal mortality. Deaths in the neonatal period constitute 41•6% of the 6•3 million children who die annually before their fifth birthday.2 In 2010, there were an estimated 1•7 million cases of neonatal sepsis and 510 000 cases of neonatal pneumonia.

Comment
Political economy analysis for nutrition policy
Michael R Reich, Yarlini Balarajan
Preview |
The past decade has seen increasing global policy attention to nutrition. Concrete steps have been taken to construct a global governance architecture for nutrition and also to mobilise resources for action.1 Efficacious, low-cost interventions exist,2 and there is greater consensus around technical issues, including the role of nutrition-specific and nutrition-sensitive interventions in addressing malnutrition in different settings.3 The economic argument to invest in nutrition is well developed, supported by cost-benefit analyses and studies that quantify the cost to scale up interventions.

Article
Annual rates of decline in child, maternal, HIV, and tuberculosis mortality across 109 countries of low and middle income from 1990 to 2013: an assessment of the feasibility of post-2015 goals
Dr Stéphane Verguet PhD a, Prof Ole Frithjof Norheim PhD b, Zachary D Olson MA a, Gavin Yamey MD c, Prof Dean T Jamison PhD c
Summary
Background
Measuring a country’s health performance has focused mostly on estimating levels of mortality. An alternative is to measure rates of decline in mortality, which are more sensitive to changes in health policy than are mortality levels. Historical rates of decline in mortality can also help test the feasibility of future health goals (eg, post-2015). We aimed to assess the annual rates of decline in under-5, maternal, tuberculosis, and HIV mortality over the past two decades for 109 low-income and middle-income countries.
Methods
For the period 1990—2013, we estimated annual rates of decline in under-5 mortality (deaths per 1000 livebirths), the maternal mortality ratio (deaths per 100 000 livebirths), and tuberculosis and HIV mortality (deaths per 100 000 population per year) using published data from UNICEF and WHO. For every 5-year interval (eg, 1990—95), we defined performance as the size of the annual rate of decline for every mortality indicator. Subsequently, we tested the feasibility of post-2015 goals by estimating the year by which countries would achieve 2030 targets proposed by The Lancet’s Commission on Investing in Health (ie, 20 deaths per 1000 for under-5 mortality, 94 deaths per 100 000 for maternal mortality, four deaths per 100 000 for tuberculosis mortality, and eight deaths per 100 000 for HIV mortality) at observed country and aspirational best-performer (90th percentile) rates.
Findings
From 2005 to 2013, the mean annual rate of decline in under-5 mortality was 4•3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3•9—4•6), for maternal mortality it was 3•3% (2•5—4•1), for tuberculosis mortality 4•1% (2•8—5•4), and for HIV mortality 2•2% (0•1—4•3); aspirational best-performer rates per year were 7•1% (6•8—7•5), 6•3% (5•5—7•1), 12•8% (11•5—14•1), and 15•3% (13•2—17•4), respectively. The top two country performers were Macedonia and South Africa for under-5 mortality, Belarus and Bulgaria for maternal mortality, Uzbekistan and Macedonia for tuberculosis mortality, and Namibia and Rwanda for HIV mortality. At aspirational rates of decline, The Lancet’s Commission on Investing in Health target for under-5 mortality would be achieved by 50—64% of countries, 35—41% of countries would achieve the 2030 target for maternal mortality, 74—90% of countries would meet the goal for tuberculosis mortality, and 66—82% of countries would achieve the target for HIV mortality.
Interpretation
Historical rates of decline can help define realistic targets for Sustainable Development Goals. The gap between targets and projected achievement based on recent trends suggests that countries and the international community must seek further acceleration of progress in mortality.
Funding
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, NORAD.

Tuberculosis in pregnancy: an estimate of the global burden of disease
Jordan Sugarman BSc a, Charlotte Colvin PhD b, Allisyn C Moran PhD b, Dr Olivia Oxlade PhD a
Summary
Background
The estimated number of maternal deaths in 2013 worldwide was 289 000, a 45% reduction from 1990. Non-obstetric causes such as infectious diseases including tuberculosis now account for 28% of maternal deaths. In 2013, 3•3 million cases of tuberculosis were estimated to occur in women globally. During pregnancy, tuberculosis is associated with poor outcomes, including increased mortality in both the neonate and the pregnant woman. The aim of our study was to estimate the burden of tuberculosis disease among pregnant women, and to describe how maternal care services could be used as a platform to improve case detection.
Methods
We used publicly accessible country-level estimates of the total population, distribution of the total population by age and sex, crude birth rate, estimated prevalence of active tuberculosis, and case notification data by age and sex to estimate the number of pregnant women with active tuberculosis for 217 countries. We then used indicators of health system access and tuberculosis diagnostic test performance obtained from published literature to determine how many of these cases could ultimately be detected.
Findings
We estimated that 216 500 (95% uncertainty range 192 100—247 000) active tuberculosis cases existed in pregnant women globally in 2011. The greatest burdens were in the WHO African region with 89 400 cases and the WHO South East Asian region with 67 500 cases in pregnant women. Chest radiography or Xpert RIF/MTB, delivered through maternal care services, were estimated to detect as many as 114 100 and 120 300 tuberculosis cases, respectively.
Interpretation
The burden of tuberculosis disease in pregnant women is substantial. Maternal care services could provide an important platform for tuberculosis detection, treatment initiation, and subsequent follow-up.
Funding
United States Agency for International Development.

The Lancet Infectious Diseases – December 2014

The Lancet Infectious Diseases
Dec 2014 Volume 14 Number 12 p1163 – 1292
http://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/issue/current

Editorial
Rationality and coordination for Ebola outbreak in west Africa
The Lancet Infectious Diseases
According to WHO, as of Oct 31, 2014, 13 540 people have been diagnosed with Ebola virus disease in eight countries—including 4951 deaths. Transmission remains persistent and widespread in Guinea (1667 cases, 1018 deaths), Liberia (6535 cases, 2413 deaths), and Sierra Leone (5338 cases, 1510 deaths). Dedicated doctors, nurses, and other health-care workers have made great efforts to contain the epidemic. WHO reports that 450 of these health-care workers have developed the disease and more than 230 have died. WHO has attributed these cases to the shortage and improper use of personal protective equipment, and lack of trained medical personnel.

Health-care workers returning from west Africa, who have put their lives at risk to help others, have been quarantined in several US states, such as New York and New Jersey; more recently, Illinois has started imposing the same measures. Quarantine measures in the USA were put in place after Craig Spencer returned from Guinea and travelled around New York City before he fell ill. A further development was the decision by Louisiana health officials to ban anyone who travelled from Ebola-affected parts of west Africa, and hence Ebola researchers were told not to come to the American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene meeting held recently in New Orleans…

Article
Dynamics and control of Ebola virus transmission in Montserrado, Liberia: a mathematical modelling analysis
Joseph A Lewnard BA a b †, Martial L Ndeffo Mbah PhD a b †, Jorge A Alfaro-Murillo PhD a b, Prof Frederick L Altice MD a c, Luke Bawo MPH d, Tolbert G Nyenswah MPH d, Prof Alison P Galvani PhD a b
Summary
Background
A substantial scale-up in public health response is needed to control the unprecedented Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic in west Africa. Current international commitments seek to expand intervention capacity in three areas: new EVD treatment centres, case ascertainment through contact tracing, and household protective kit allocation. We aimed to assess how these interventions could be applied individually and in combination to avert future EVD cases and deaths.
Methods
We developed a transmission model of Ebola virus that we fitted to reported EVD cases and deaths in Montserrado County, Liberia. We used this model to assess the effectiveness of expanding EVD treatment centres, increasing case ascertainment, and allocating protective kits for controlling the outbreak in Montserrado. We varied the efficacy of protective kits from 10% to 50%. We compared intervention initiation on Oct 15, 2014, Oct 31, 2014, and Nov 15, 2014. The status quo intervention was defined in terms of case ascertainment and capacity of EVD treatment centres on Sept 23, 2014, and all behaviour and contact patterns relevant to transmission as they were occurring at that time. The primary outcome measure was the expected number of cases averted by Dec 15, 2014.
Findings
We estimated the basic reproductive number for EVD in Montserrado to be 2•49 (95% CI 2•38—2•60). We expect that allocating 4800 additional beds at EVD treatment centres and increasing case ascertainment five-fold in November, 2014, can avert 77 312 (95% CI 68 400—85 870) cases of EVD relative to the status quo by Dec 15, 2014. Complementing these measures with protective kit allocation raises the expectation as high as 97 940 (90 096—105 606) EVD cases. If deployed by Oct 15, 2014, equivalent interventions would have been expected to avert 137 432 (129 736—145 874) cases of EVD. If delayed to Nov 15, 2014, we expect the interventions will at best avert 53 957 (46 963—60 490) EVD cases.
Interpretation
The number of beds at EVD treatment centres needed to effectively control EVD in Montserrado substantially exceeds the 1700 pledged by the USA to west Africa. Accelerated case ascertainment is needed to maximise effectiveness of expanding the capacity of EVD treatment centres. Distributing protective kits can further augment prevention of EVD, but it is not an adequate stand-alone measure for controlling the outbreak. Our findings highlight the rapidly closing window of opportunity for controlling the outbreak and averting a catastrophic toll of EVD cases and deaths.
Funding
US National Institutes of Health.