The Lancet
Jan 31, 2015 Volume 385 Number 9966 p393-480
http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/issue/current
Editorial
Women’s, children’s, and adolescents’ health: who will lead?
The Lancet
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(15)60135-0
Summary
Last week, Somalia became the 195th country to ratify the Convention on the Rights of the Child (CRC), making the USA the only UN member state yet to ratify the treaty. The CRC, adopted by the UN General Assembly in 1989, is a landmark international agreement delivering a comprehensive set of rights for the world’s youngest citizens; Somalia should be applauded for its move. The news comes in a year that is critical for children, and for women. In less than a month in Delhi, India (Feb 26–27), a consultation will take place on transitioning the Global Strategy for Women’s and Children’s Health (2010–15) into a post-2015 environment.
Articles
Global, regional, and national causes of child mortality in 2000–13, with projections to inform post-2015 priorities: an updated systematic analysis
Li Liu, PhD, Shefali Oza, MSc, Daniel Hogan, PhD, Jamie Perin, PhD, Prof Igor Rudan, MD, Prof Joy E Lawn, MD, Prof Simon Cousens, MA, Colin Mathers, PhD, Prof Robert E Black, MD
Published Online: 30 September 2014
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(14)61698-6
Summary
Background
Trend data for causes of child death are crucial to inform priorities for improving child survival by and beyond 2015. We report child mortality by cause estimates in 2000–13, and cause-specific mortality scenarios to 2030 and 2035.
Methods
We estimated the distributions of causes of child mortality separately for neonates and children aged 1–59 months. To generate cause-specific mortality fractions, we included new vital registration and verbal autopsy data. We used vital registration data in countries with adequate registration systems. We applied vital registration-based multicause models for countries with low under-5 mortality but inadequate vital registration, and updated verbal autopsy-based multicause models for high mortality countries. We used updated numbers of child deaths to derive numbers of deaths by causes. We applied two scenarios to derive cause-specific mortality in 2030 and 2035.
Findings
Of the 6•3 million children who died before age 5 years in 2013, 51•8% (3•257 million) died of infectious causes and 44% (2•761 million) died in the neonatal period. The three leading causes are preterm birth complications (0•965 million [15•4%, uncertainty range (UR) 9•8−24•5]; UR 0•615–1•537 million), pneumonia (0•935 million [14•9%, 13•0–16•8]; 0•817–1•057 million), and intrapartum-related complications (0•662 million [10•5%, 6•7–16•8]; 0•421–1•054 million). Reductions in pneumonia, diarrhoea, and measles collectively were responsible for half of the 3•6 million fewer deaths recorded in 2013 versus 2000. Causes with the slowest progress were congenital, preterm, neonatal sepsis, injury, and other causes. If present trends continue, 4•4 million children younger than 5 years will still die in 2030. Furthermore, sub-Saharan Africa will have 33% of the births and 60% of the deaths in 2030, compared with 25% and 50% in 2013, respectively.
Interpretation
Our projection results provide concrete examples of how the distribution of child causes of deaths could look in 15–20 years to inform priority setting in the post-2015 era. More evidence is needed about shifts in timing, causes, and places of under-5 deaths to inform child survival agendas by and beyond 2015, to end preventable child deaths in a generation, and to count and account for every newborn and every child.
Funding
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Review
Countdown to 2015 and beyond: fulfilling the health agenda for women and children
Jennifer Harris Requejo, PhD, Prof Jennifer Bryce, EdD, Aluisio JD Barros, PhD, Prof Peter Berman, PhD, Prof Zulfiqar Bhutta, PhD, Mickey Chopra, MD, Bernadette Daelmans, MD, Andres de Francisco, PhD, Prof Joy Lawn, PhD, Blerta Maliqi, PhD, Elizabeth Mason, MD, Holly Newby, MS, Carole Presern, PhD, Ann Starrs, MPA, Prof Cesar G Victora, PhD
Published Online: 29 June 2014
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60925-9
Summary
The end of 2015 will signal the end of the Millennium Development Goal era, when the world can take stock of what has been achieved. The Countdown to 2015 for Maternal, Newborn, and Child Survival (Countdown) has focused its 2014 report on how much has been achieved in intervention coverage in these groups, and on how best to sustain, focus, and intensify efforts to progress for this and future generations. Our 2014 results show unfinished business in achievement of high, sustained, and equitable coverage of essential interventions. Progress has accelerated in the past decade in most Countdown countries, suggesting that further gains are possible with intensified actions. Some of the greatest coverage gaps are in family planning, interventions addressing newborn mortality, and case management of childhood diseases. Although inequities are pervasive, country successes in reaching of the poorest populations provide lessons for other countries to follow. As we transition to the next set of global goals, we must remember the centrality of data to accountability, and the importance of support of country capacity to collect and use high-quality data on intervention coverage and inequities for decision making. To fulfill the health agenda for women and children both now and beyond 2015 requires continued monitoring of country and global progress; Countdown is committed to playing its part in this effort.