EBOLA/EVD [to 7 February 2015]
Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC); “Threat to international peace and security” (UN Security Council)

WHO: Ebola Situation Report – 4 February 2015
[Excerpt; Editor’s text bolding]
SUMMARY
:: Weekly case incidence increased in all three countries for the first time this year. There were 124 new confirmed cases reported in the week to 1 February: 39 in Guinea, 5 in Liberia, and 80 in Sierra Leone.
:: Continued community resistance, increasing geographical spread in Guinea and widespread transmission in Sierra Leone, and a rise in incidence show that the EVD response still faces significant challenges.
:: As the wet season approaches, there is an urgent need to end the outbreak in as wide an area as possible, especially in remote areas that will become more difficult to access.
:: Guinea reported 39 new confirmed cases, compared with 30 the previous week. An unsafe burial that took place in early January in the eastern prefecture of Lola, on the border with Côte d’Ivoire, has so far resulted in an outbreak of 11 confirmed cases. A further confirmed case in the northern prefecture of Siguiri, on the border with Mali, also originated in Lola.
:: The north Guinean prefecture of Tougué, which also borders Mali, has reported its first 2 confirmed cases. Both cases originated in the western prefecture of Dubreka.
::: In light of the recent increase in cases in northern Guinea, cross-border meetings between Guinea, Mali, and Senegal are planned to strengthen coordination of surveillance. A rapid-response team has also arrived in the border area between Lola, Guinea, and Côte d’Ivoire to assess risk and strengthen surveillance.
:: A total of 80 new cases were reported in Sierra Leone in the week to 1 February, compared with 65 the previous week. The western districts of Port Loko and the capital Freetown are the worst-affected areas. Nine of 14 districts in the country reported at least 1 confirmed case, up from 7 districts in the previous week.
:: The target is for 100% of new cases to arise among registered contacts, so that each and every chain of transmission can be tracked and terminated. In Guinea in the week to 25 January, 14 of 26 (54%) new confirmed and probable cases in arose among registered contacts; in Liberia in the 9 days to 31 January, 7 of 7 (100%) new confirmed cases arose among registered contacts; and in Sierra Leone in the week to 18 January 26 of 121 (21%) confirmed cases arose among registered contacts.
:: The case fatality rate among hospitalized cases (calculated from all confirmed and probable hospitalized cases with a reported definitive outcome) is between 50% and 61% in the 3 intense-transmission countries.
:: A total of 822 confirmed health worker infections have been reported in the 3 intense-transmission countries; there have been 488 reported deaths.
:: A total of 10 of 34 prefectures in Guinea reported at least one security incident or other form of refusal to cooperate in the week to 1 February. No counties in Liberia and 3 districts in Sierra Leone reported at least one similar incident during the week to 27 January.

COUNTRIES WITH WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE TRANSMISSION
:: There have been almost 22 500 reported confirmed, probable, and suspected cases (Annex 1) of EVD in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone (table 1), with almost 9000 reported deaths (outcomes for many cases are unknown). A total of 39 new confirmed cases were reported in Guinea, 5 in Liberia, and 80 in Sierra Leone in the 7 days to 1 February.
:: A stratified analysis of cumulative confirmed and probable cases indicates that the number of cases in males and females is similar (table 2). Compared with children (people aged 14 years and under), people aged 15 to 44 are approximately three times more likely to be affected. People aged 45 and over are almost four times more likely to be affected than are children.
:: A total of 822 confirmed health worker infections have been reported in the 3 intense-transmission countries; there have been 488 reported deaths (table 3)….