Understanding Gavi’s Impact on Vaccination Rates
Center for Global Development | 9 February 2015
2/9/15
Sarah Dykstra, Amanda Glassman, Charles Kenny and Justin Sandefur
[Excerpt from blog announcement of new working paper and policy brief]
Last week, Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, completed a $7.5 billion replenishment to fund its work on immunization in the world’s poorest countries between now and 2020. Gavi’s next step is to ensure that the money is used as effectively as possible to save lives and improve health.

Today, we’re launching a working paper and policy brief that we hope will be a helpful input to that discussion. We find that many of the vaccines provided by Gavi went to people who would have been vaccinated anyway, leading to little increase in overall vaccination rates — especially for the cheapest vaccines, and particularly in middle-income countries. Paradoxically, this is partially good news. Our results imply that if it’s possible to save lives with a vaccine that costs a few cents, most middle-income countries will do it with or without aid. But that doesn’t mean there’s no place for aid. First, the poorest countries in the world still struggle to roll out basic vaccines. Second, for newer vaccines that countries have not widely adopted on their own, we find signs of a positive impact of Gavi aid on vaccination rates…

.

:: Working Paper: The Impact of Gavi on Vaccination Rates: Regression Discontinuity Evidence – Working Paper 394
Center for Global Development 2/9/15 :: 51 pages
Sarah Dykstra, Amanda Glassman, Charles Kenny, and Justin Sandefur
Download PDF
Abstract
Since 2001, an aid consortium known as Gavi has accounted for over half of vaccination expenditure in the 75 eligible countries with an initial per capita GNI below $1,000. Regression discontinuity (RD) estimates show aid significantly displaced other immunization efforts and failed to increase vaccination rates for diseases covered by cheap, existing vaccines. For some newer and more expensive vaccines, i.e., Hib and rotavirus, we found large effects on vaccination and limited fungibility, though statistical significance is not robust. These RD estimates apply to middle-income countries near Gavi’s eligibility threshold, and cannot rule out differential effects for the poorest countries.

.

:: Brief: Refocusing Gavi for Greater Impact
Center for Global Development 2/9/15 :: 6 pages
Sarah Dykstra, Amanda Glassman, Charles Kenny, and Justin Sandefur
Download PDF
Summary
Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, pools donor funds to increase immunization rates in developing countries. Vaccines have saved millions of lives. [1] Results from new research at the Center for Global Development suggest Gavi could save more lives by shifting support away from lower-cost vaccines provided to middle-income countries toward more underused vaccines and support to the poorest countries