PNAS – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/
(Accessed 17 October 2015)

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Biological Sciences – Population Biology:
Measuring the impact of Ebola control measures in Sierra Leone
Adam J. Kucharski, Anton Camacho, Stefan Flasche, Rebecca E. Glover, W. John Edmunds, and Sebastian Funk
PNAS 2015 ; published ahead of print October 12, 2015, doi:10.1073/pnas.1508814112
Significance
Between June 2014 and February 2015, thousands of Ebola treatment beds were introduced in Sierra Leone, alongside other infection control measures. However, there has been criticism of the timing and focus of this response, and it remains unclear how much it contributed to curbing the 2014–2015 Ebola epidemic. Using a mathematical model, we estimated how many Ebola virus disease cases the response averted in each district of Sierra Leone. We estimated that 56,600 (95% credible interval: 48,300–84,500) Ebola cases were averted in Sierra Leone as a direct result of additional treatment beds. Moreover, the number of cases averted would have been even greater had beds been available 1 month earlier.
Abstract
Between September 2014 and February 2015, the number of Ebola virus disease (EVD) cases reported in Sierra Leone declined in many districts. During this period, a major international response was put in place, with thousands of treatment beds introduced alongside other infection control measures. However, assessing the impact of the response is challenging, as several factors could have influenced the decline in infections, including behavior changes and other community interventions. We developed a mathematical model of EVD transmission, and measured how transmission changed over time in the 12 districts of Sierra Leone with sustained transmission between June 2014 and February 2015. We used the model to estimate how many cases were averted as a result of the introduction of additional treatment beds in each area. Examining epidemic dynamics at the district level, we estimated that 56,600 (95% credible interval: 48,300–84,500) Ebola cases (both reported and unreported) were averted in Sierra Leone up to February 2, 2015 as a direct result of additional treatment beds being introduced. We also found that if beds had been introduced 1 month earlier, a further 12,500 cases could have been averted. Our results suggest the unprecedented local and international response led to a substantial decline in EVD transmission during 2014–2015. In particular, the introduction of beds had a direct impact on reducing EVD cases in Sierra Leone, although the effect varied considerably between districts.