International Journal of Infectious Diseases
January 2016 Volume 42, p1-74
http://www.ijidonline.com/issue/S1201-9712%2815%29X0012-9

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Editorial
Why is Pakistan a threat to “The Polio Eradication and Endgame Strategic Plan 2013–2018”? A look into the past decade
Tariq Khan, Bilal Haider Abbasi, Mubarak Ali Khan, Akhtar Nadhman
p4–6
Published online: November 16 2015
Abstract
The fight against endemic polio transmission is restricted to three countries: Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Nigeria. In 2012, when the world saw the lowest numbers of cases from polio-reporting countries, the World Health Organization (WHO) initiated a comprehensive strategy, “The Polio Eradication and Endgame Strategic Plan 2013–2018”.1 The plan (as it will be called from this point onwards) aims at: (1) wild polio virus (WPV) interruption by the end of 2014, (2) a strengthened immunization system and cessation of oral polio vaccine (OPV), (3) containment and certification, and (4) the quest for maintenance of a polio-free world by 2018.

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Perspective
Impacts of neglected tropical disease on incidence and progression of HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria: scientific links
G.G. Simon
Management Sciences for Health, Arlington VA, USA
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2015.11.006
Highlights
:: The neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) share a high degree of geographic overlap with malaria and HIV.
:: Research suggests that NTDs can impact HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria disease progression.
:: Immunological, epidemiological, and social cofactors contribute to disease impact.
Summary
The neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) are the most common infections of humans in Sub-Saharan Africa. Virtually all of the population living below the World Bank poverty figure is affected by one or more NTDs. New evidence indicates a high degree of geographic overlap between the highest-prevalence NTDs (soil-transmitted helminths, schistosomiasis, onchocerciasis, lymphatic filariasis, and trachoma) and malaria and HIV, exhibiting a high degree of co-infection. Recent research suggests that NTDs can affect HIV and AIDS, tuberculosis (TB), and malaria disease progression. A combination of immunological, epidemiological, and clinical factors can contribute to these interactions and add to a worsening prognosis for people affected by HIV/AIDS, TB, and malaria. Together these results point to the impacts of the highest-prevalence NTDs on the health outcomes of malaria, HIV/AIDS, and TB and present new opportunities to design innovative public health interventions and strategies for these ‘big three’ diseases. This analysis describes the current findings of research and what research is still needed to strengthen the knowledge base of the impacts NTDs have on the big three.

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Reviews
Bridging the gap between evidence and policy for infectious diseases: How models can aid public health decision-making
Gwenan M. Knight, Nila J. Dharan, Gregory J. Fox, Natalie Stennis, Alice Zwerling, Renuka Khurana, David W. Dowdy
p17–23
Published online: November 3 2015
Highlights
:: Mathematical models are under-utilized in public health.
:: We discuss the current use of infectious disease modelling with a case study.
:: We lay out the methods and limitations of modelling infectious diseases.
:: We present a framework for improved interaction between public health and modellers.
:: This could lead to more transparent and evidence-driven policy decisions.
Summary
The dominant approach to decision-making in public health policy for infectious diseases relies heavily on expert opinion, which often applies empirical evidence to policy questions in a manner that is neither systematic nor transparent. Although systematic reviews are frequently commissioned to inform specific components of policy (such as efficacy), the same process is rarely applied to the full decision-making process. Mathematical models provide a mechanism through which empirical evidence can be methodically and transparently integrated to address such questions. However, such models are often considered difficult to interpret. In addition, models provide estimates that need to be iteratively re-evaluated as new data or considerations arise. Using the case study of a novel diagnostic for tuberculosis, a framework for improved collaboration between public health decision-makers and mathematical modellers that could lead to more transparent and evidence-driven policy decisions for infectious diseases in the future is proposed. The framework proposes that policymakers should establish long-term collaborations with modellers to address key questions, and that modellers should strive to provide clear explanations of the uncertainty of model structure and outputs. Doing so will improve the applicability of models and clarify their limitations when used to inform real-world public health policy decisions.

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Original Reports
Age and Ebola viral load correlate with mortality and survival time in 288 Ebola virus disease patients
Jin Li, Hui-Juan Duan, Hao-Yang Chen, Ying-Jie Ji, Xin Zhang, Yi-Hui Rong, Zhe Xu, Li-Jian Sun, Ji-Yuan Zhang, Li-Ming Liu, Bo Jin, Jian Zhang, Ning Du, Hai-Bin Su, Guang-Ju Teng, Yue Yuan, En-Qiang Qin, Hong-Jun Jia, Shu Wang, Tong-Sheng Guo, Ye Wang, Jin-Song Mu, Tao Yan, Zhi-Wei Li, Zheng Dong, Wei-Min Nie, Tian-Jun Jiang, Chen Li, Xu-Dong Gao, Dong Ji, Ying-Jie Zhuang, Lei Li, Li-Fu Wang, Wen-Gang Li, Xue-Zhang Duan, Yin-Ying Lu, Zhi-Qiang Sun, Alex B.J. Kanu, Sheku M. Koroma, Min Zhao, Jun-Sheng Ji, Fu-Sheng Wang
p34–39
Published online: October 30 2015