The Lancet
Mar 14, 2020 Volume 395 Number 10227 p839-920, e46-e51
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/issue/current

Articles
Preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against importations of COVID-19: a modelling study
Marius Gilbert, et al.
Findings
Countries with the highest importation risk (ie, Egypt, Algeria, and South Africa) have moderate to high capacity to respond to outbreaks. Countries at moderate risk (ie, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Sudan, Angola, Tanzania, Ghana, and Kenya) have variable capacity and high vulnerability. We identified three clusters of countries that share the same exposure to the risk originating from the provinces of Guangdong, Fujian, and the city of Beijing, respectively.
Interpretation
Many countries in Africa are stepping up their preparedness to detect and cope with COVID-19 importations. Resources, intensified surveillance, and capacity building should be urgently prioritised in countries with moderate risk that might be ill-prepared to detect imported cases and to limit onward transmission.
Funding
EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation Horizon 2020, Agence Nationale de la Recherche.