Featured Journal Content
Volume 28 September 2019
Research article Open access
Real-time predictions of the 2018–2019 Ebola virus disease outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo using Hawkes point process models
J. Daniel Kelly, Junhyung Park, Ryan J. Harrigan, Nicole A. Hoff, … Frederic Paik Schoenberg
:: Current 2018–2019 Ebola outbreak in DRC is the second largest ever with over 1600 cases as of 10 May 2019.
:: Evidence of an increase in the estimated transmission rates in health zones with recently reported violence versus those without (p = 0.008) in time series analysis.
:: The average R was estimated as between 0.61 and 0.86 in regions not affected by recent violence.
:: Estimated the increase in R between 0.17 and 0.53.
:: Violence is contributing to the continued transmission and the ongoing nature of this outbreak.