Annals of Internal Medicine
4 August 2020 Volume 173, Issue 3
Ideas and Opinions
Caution Warranted: Using the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Model for Predicting the Course of the COVID-19 Pandemic
Nicholas P. Jewell, PhD, Joseph A. Lewnard, PhD, and Britta L. Jewell, PhD
The IHME model for predicting the course of the COVID-19 pandemic has attracted considerable attention, including from the U.S. government. The appearance of certainty of model estimates is seductive when the world is desperate to know what lies ahead, but caution is warranted regarding the validity and usefulness of model projections for policymakers.