PNAS – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Global COVID-19 pandemic demands joint interventions for the suppression of future waves
Ruiyun Li, Bin Chen, Tao Zhang, Zhehao Ren, Yimeng Song, Yixiong Xiao, Lin Hou, Jun Cai, Bo Xu, Miao Li, Karen Kie Yan Chan, Ying Tu, Mu Yang, Jing Yang, Zhaoyang Liu, Chong Shen, Che Wang, Lei Xu, Qiyong Liu, Shuming Bao, Jianqin Zhang, Yuhai Bi, Yuqi Bai, Ke Deng, Wusheng Zhang, Wenyu Huang, Jason D. Whittington, Nils Chr. Stenseth, Dabo Guan, Peng Gong, and Bing Xu
PNAS first published September 28, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2012002117
Emerging evidence suggests a resurgence of COVID-19 in the coming years. It is thus critical to optimize emergency response planning from a broad, integrated perspective. We developed a mathematical model incorporating climate-driven variation in community transmissions and movement-modulated spatial diffusions of COVID-19 into various intervention scenarios. We find that an intensive 8-wk intervention targeting the reduction of local transmissibility and international travel is efficient and effective. Practically, we suggest a tiered implementation of this strategy where interventions are first implemented at locations in what we call the Global Intervention Hub, followed by timely interventions in secondary high-risk locations. We argue that thinking globally, categorizing locations in a hub-and-spoke intervention network, and acting locally, applying interventions at high-risk areas, is a functional strategy to avert the tremendous burden that would otherwise be placed on public health and society.