American Journal of Preventive Medicine
October 2020 Volume 59, Issue 4, p469-620
Vaccine Efficacy Needed for a COVID-19 Coronavirus Vaccine to Prevent or Stop an Epidemic as the Sole Intervention
Sarah M. Bartsch, Kelly J. O’Shea, Marie C. Ferguson, Maria Elena Bottazzi, Patrick T. Wedlock, Ulrich Strych, James A. McKinnell, Sheryl S. Siegmund, Sarah N. Cox, Peter J. Hotez, Bruce Y. Lee
Published online: July 15, 2020
This study found that the vaccine has to have an efficacy of at least 70% to prevent an epidemic and of at least 80% to largely extinguish an epidemic without any other measures (e.g., social distancing).